(Vicky Graff Photo)
I’ll be the first to admit I’m not a big analytics guy. I’m more of an “eye-test” guy. I watch teams play and mentally compare them to what I have seen watching other similar teams. Generally, anyone watching college football this year (without analytics) can see that the Georgia Bulldogs seem to be head and shoulders above any other college football team at this point in the season.
Along that same vein, Mark Stoops seems to not be much of an analytics guy, either. At least that’s the impression I get. When he talked a couple of weeks ago about how good Georgia’s defense was after they held his offense to 51 yards rushing he didn’t quote any factual analysis. What he said about Georgia’s front seven was they were the “best he’s ever seen on defense.”
No discussion of sacks per game, average yards allowed per play or average yards per pass play or anything like that, just this, “This is a great [Georgia] team here. I don’t know if there’s many great teams in college football this year, but I know this one is.”
Along those same lines seven-time National Champion Alabama coach Nick Saban doesn’t seem to be much of an analytics guy either. He said a couple of weeks ago before his game against Ole Miss and coach Lane Kiffin, a former Alabama offensive coordinator.
“Everybody does analytics now,” Saban said (referring to Lane Kiffin). “Well, I’m not an analytics guy. I know coaches who are and I know coaches who we had on our staff in the past that very much are. And I like for our coaches to look at the analytics and then come and bring them up to me and I can say ‘That don’t make any sense.’ Or I can say ‘That’s an interesting thought.'”
Now, why is any of this important to UK fans? Because analytically Alabama’s 2021 defense is ranked No. 31 in the nation giving up 21.6 points per game. Mark Stoops’ Kentucky defense is ranked 18th giving up 18.7 points per game. Alabama recently played UK’s next opponent Mississippi State and it didn’t go so well for the Bulldogs. Alabama lowered the boom on Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense and held the Starkville Dogs to single digits in the scoring column. (9 to be exact).
So here’s the funny thing. though. The Mississippi State offense that Kentucky will face in Starkville on Saturday night is averaging 27.6 points per game. They scored nine on Alabama’s 31st ranked defense.
And that’s why I’m not much of a fan of analytics. Alabama, giving up 21.6 points per game, in mid-October played Mississippi State who analytically had a pretty good defense of their own and was only giving up 25.7 points per game. One would think that a game between those two would be a relatively close and low-scoring affair based on the analytics. And it was, at least for Mississippi State.
They could only score three field goals (9 points) against Alabama. Unfortunately, the Alabama offense must not have read the analytics for Mississippi State’s defense because they ran all over the Bulldogs and at the end of the game had rung up 49 points while averaging 12.8 yards per pass and 4.8 yards per rushing attempt.
Mississippi State averaged 5.5 yards per pass and -.1 yard per carry, (yes that is correct). In that game 19 rushing plays netted the Bulldogs a negative 1-yard rushing.
That’s why I’m not a big analytics guy. Just from watching Alabama and Mississippi State play other teams earlier in the season it was pretty clear to me that Alabama was going to win fairly easily and it did 49-9.
So what does this have to do with Kentucky Football? Just this. Stoops’ defense last season held Mississippi State’s offense to zero points (That 2020 UK team allowed on average 25.9 points per game for the season). They did it by allowing the Bulldog offense to throw a lot of passes for short yardage and created a lot of turnovers while shutting down the rushing game. In fact, last year’s Bulldog’s offense against Kentucky’s defense only managed 3.9 yards per completion and only 1.4 yards per rushing play while turning the ball over six times.
So, does the Alabama-Mississippi State outcome in 2021 and the analytics of all three teams have anything to do with UK winning or losing this Saturday night in Starkville?
In my opinion, both Nick Saban and Mark Stoops are excellent defensive coaches. They both have held Mike Leach’s prolific Air Raid offense to single digits. Both don’t seem to be that interested in analytics but they are both interested in creating defenses that win football games and they might have figured out the defensive strategy for controlling Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense. Kentucky did it very successfully last year and Alabama followed that same pattern and did it again this year.
Now, does that mean Kentucky will automatically win Saturday night because they have a defensive-minded coach with a good strategy and are analytically ranked slightly better. The quick answer to that is a definite no.
Just because a coach knows how to defensively control an explosive offense like Mississippi State’s doesn’t mean they will. It still takes game time execution, outstanding effort, and physicality to make it happen. That’s what Kentucky had last year in their 24-2 victory over MSU in Lexington and it’s what Alabama demonstrated a couple of weeks ago in their 49-9 win against the Bulldogs in Starkville.
So all analytics aside, if the Wildcats want to beat the Bulldogs for a second year in a row they need to follow the same formula they used last year and that Alabama successfully used this year — severely limit the MSU run game, make Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers throw a lot of short passes and then create turnovers, lots of turnovers. Alabama created three in its 49-9 win. UK needs to do the same.
So if Kentucky can limit the run game, make Will Rogers throw short passes to force MSU to continuously drive the length of the field to score, and then create interceptions or fumbles the Cats should be able to recreate some of Alabama’s success from earlier this year. But if the Cats allow the Bulldogs to successfully run the ball and don’t win the turnover battle it could be a long night in Starkville.
The ESPN analytics say MSU has a 53 percent chance to win the game. Hopefully, the Wildcats don’t care much about analytics, either, and instead, they care more about playing mistake-free, hard-nosed football on offense and defense. If they do, the analytics will take care of themselves.
4 Responses
The analytics describes how a team has played on average, but those averages include actual performances that were both better and weaker than the average values. The average level of past performance is an indicator of how a team will probably play in the future, but just as the established averaged include stronger and weaker performances, future performances can be stronger or weaker than projected.
This game figures to be a close one, but events that occur during the game such as turnovers, penalties, and great individual plays will determine whether UK or MSU play above or below their average performance levels.
As we all know, that is why they play the games.
Vegas opened MSU by 1 point but Vegas has moved to UK by 1 1/2 points. I believe UK beats Vegas again and wins by more than 1 TD, and perhaps by 2 TDs, notwithstanding all those blasted cowbells.
Great article Larry V.
Reminds me of what an old Statistics Professor taught me when I as in college : "Figures don’t lie but liars can figure" . 🙂
Good one R.John