Kentucky’s Five keys to victory at Ole Miss

Kentucky Football travels to take on the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday in Oxford, MS. Many across the country believe this is one of the best games of the weekend – if not the best. Ole Miss comes into this game ranked No. 14 in the Associated Press poll with a 4-0 record. Kentucky also comes in with a 4-0 record, but they’re ranked as the No. 7 team in the AP poll – which is the highest they’ve been ranked since the 70’s.

Kentucky opened as a 4.5-point underdog and that line has since climbed to seven. An intriguing stat is Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has won six games as an underdog of six points or greater. The Wildcats have struggled with their run game this season, but Chris Rodriguez is back and Kentucky’s offensive line has shown improvement. On the other hand, Ole Miss has struggled with their passing game with head coach Lane Kiffin not appearing to have a lot of trust in young quarterback Jaxson Dart. Both of these trends aren’t the norm for either team, so what does Kentucky need to do to upset Ole Miss in Oxford this weekend?

1. Chris Rodriguez is Back

This is big. Rodriguez is so important for not only the running game but also the passing attack. Rodriguez has the opportunity to break Benny Snell’s record and become the all-time leading rusher at UK by the end of the season. He currently has 2,740 yards and needs 3,873 over the next nine games (including UK’s bowl game) so look for him to run hard right out of the gate. If Rodriguez is going to average 126 rush yards per game and break Snell’s record, it’s going to starts with this game. When it comes to the passing game, Kentucky’s offensive coaches have preached how important it will be to get Rodriguez the ball through the air. Rodriguez showed off his catching ability with an incredible one-handed grab at fan day and can help Kentucky there, too. If the Line can give him just a little bit of space, Rodriguez and the other backs should have a big game.

2. Keep Rebel Running Backs Contained

A large portion of the Ole Miss offense this season has been from running the ball, which is an unusual trend for Rebel football. Ole Miss is usually a top-10 offense with their passing game, but this year is very different. The Rebels still have a very good offense, but nothing compared to past seasons. Kiffin does not seem to trust Dart and it has forced his team to run the ball, which they have done well. The Rebels have a two-headed monster in Quinshon Judkins (429 yards and five touchdowns) and Zach Evans (365 yards and four touchdowns). The two running backs are responsible for over 85% of the rushing attack at Ole Miss. The Rebels rushed for 308 yards last week against Tulsa and if Kentucky linebackers don’t get downhill this weekend, Ole Miss could put up similar numbers. Thankfully the Wildcats have a veteran linebacking core that has played very well this year.

3. Air It Out

The Ole Miss pass defense has struggled this season. They gave up 200 yards to Tulsa last weekend with former Wildcat Isaiah Epps bringing in four catches and 62 of those 200 yards. Kentucky has a lot of talent this year at wide receiver, so you can bet they plan on using it. The Ole Miss defensive backs have looked slower than their competition each weekend and don’t appear to be on the same page. The Rebels likely miss Keidron Smith, who is now playing defensive back for Kentucky. Smith left a big spot to fill for Ole Miss and, so far, it doesn’t look like that hole has been plugged. Kentucky star quarterback Will Levis has been great and so have his wide receivers. Kentucky finally has an explosive offense and if they can air it out off of play action, UK just might come back to Lexington with another victory over a top-15 team.

4. Move the Chains

So far this season, Kentucky has not capitalized on being in front of the chains. Time after time, Kentucky has had second and eight or second and nine after only getting a yard or two on first down. With Rodriguez back, the Wildcats should see improvement. Kentucky has to find a way to have second and six or second and five. They have to find a way to make Ole Miss play a guessing game on short yardage downs. Kentucky has had third and four or longer over 65% of the time this season. Ole Miss has struggled against the run game this season, so expect Kentucky to be able to run the ball on first and second down.

5. Put Pressure on Jaxson Dart

If Kentucky can force Jaxson Dart to be uncomfortable make bad decisions, Ole Miss may crumble. Kiffin seems to have very low confidence in his young QB and a lack of confidence can be contagious. Dart has completed 62% of his passes but most of that production has come against competition that doesn’t compare to Kentucky. Tulsa brought pressure 70% of the time last Saturday and was able to make Dart uncomfortable. As a result, he only completed 54% of his pass attempts. Dart has shown he can move with his feet, as he’s ran for over 200 yards so far this season. Again, Kentucky’s veteran linebacking core should more than hold up against Dart’s legs but they’ll also need to bring pressure when he’s in the pocket.

Kentucky has defended the run well this season and if they do it this week, they should control the outcome of the game. Getting Rodriguez back is a big-time addition. He’ll be able to come out with fresh legs and take a load off of the other running backs. If Kentucky can capitalize on these five keys to victory, they should be able to pull off the upset and potentially move up a spot or two in next week’s AP poll.

Prediction: Kentucky 35, Ole Miss 24