Limiting turnovers could be key for Cats against Providence

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Antonio Reeves and the other UK guards cannot make careless turnovers against Providence's pressure defense Friday. (Vicky Graff Photo)

Is Providence a good or bad matchup for Kentucky to open NCAA Tournament play?

That’s the question I asked Sean Vinsel of HoopsInsight.com.

“I’m leaning fairly good because they have a good offense, which can pick on UK’s defense, but they depend a lot on offensive rebounding,” Vinsel said. “Not sure they get that versus UK.

“Providence has been playing badly since mid-February, but some of that may be conference foes and familiarity. Providence has guards and wings who can pressure the rim, that’s a big factor.

“I think Friday depends on their ability to draw more free throws than UK. That’s a strength and could offset UK piling up second chance points.”

Kentucky, 1-4 in postseason play the last three years going into Friday’s game, could negate Providence’s biggest strength with the rebounding of Oscar Tshiebwe and others. Vinsel noted that UK beat Texas A&M, a team that relies on offensive rebounding(sixth nationally) and free throws (third nationally).

“UK held them to four offensive rebounds and won comfortably. Providence is a better shooting team than Texas A&M, but UK didn’t have a problem shutting off the offensive rebounding faucet,” Vinsel noted in a recent post.

“Tennessee was the No. 49 offense, driven also by offensive rebounding, and Kentucky beat them twice while again dominating the rebounding battle. I think Kentucky can keep Providence well under their offensive rebounding average, which puts a lot of pressure on the Friars to shoot well.”

Providence has not played well the last month and Vinsel noted that the Friars’ rebounding and free throw rate have taken a hit over the last month.

“Kentucky has been surging in both rebounding and drawing free throws in that time, so the Wildcats are getting better in exactly the areas where Providence is slipping,” Vinsel posted in a recent story.

Vinsel also pointed out that Providence had a lot more success the first time it played conference foes than it did in rematches and that could work in the Friars’ favor since they have not played UK this season.

Providence has also had success forcing turnovers from its zone defense.

“If the Friars are able to swarm Oscar Tshiebwe and force a turnover or two after a rebound, that could be a big help (for Providence). If Providence’s zone just leaves holes for Tshiebwe, (Jacob) Toppin, and others to get easy put-backs, then it’s going to dig a hole for the Friars,” Vinsel noted.

Vinsel also had these words of wisdom/caution for UK going into Friday’s game:

“Kentucky’s wins against strong offenses have usually come accompanied by some defensive shooting luck, which didn’t hold up in later games. Texas A&M was 3-for-16 from 3, Tennessee was 9-for-48 from 3 across two games, and Vandy was 12-for-38 on 2’s in the game UK took off them,” Vinsel wrote.

“The biggest X factor for me is how Kentucky scores, and especially if the Wildcats get turnover prone against the Friars’ zone and press. UK should get enough offensive rebounds to offset cold shooting, but turnovers could completely negate that.”

One Response

  1. DEFENSE?? If Cat’s can play D half as good as the little Norse team does they can win.N KY played best up tight on Houston all nite and came close to winning. They just didin’t make any 3’s. But D was excellent
    Hope they watched that game last night
    Go Cats

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