Josh Ali is UK's top returning receiver - Photo by Vicky Graff
The 2020 football season will be unlike any season that has ever occurred. Instead of the usual 12 game schedule that includes 4 non-conference opponents (3 or 4 at home) and 8 SEC opponents (4 at home and 4 on the road), the 2020 schedule will be 10 SEC opponents, five at home and five on the road. This scheduling change makes the Kentucky 2020 football schedule the most difficult football schedule in memory.
The Cats must travel to Auburn, Tennessee, Missouri, Alabama and Florida, and the Cats will entertain Mississippi, Mississippi State, Georgia, Vanderbilt, and South Carolina at Kroger Field. Among the home games, the Georgia Bulldogs will come to Kroger Field a heavy favorite based on all pre-season rankings that I have seen, but the Cats should be competitive, if not favored over the other four home opponents.
To end 2020 with a non-losing records, the Cats will have to win at least one of their road games, and to end 2020 with a winning record, the Cats will have to pick up a second (or more) road win. Of the road opponents, the most likely opportunities for wins, in my opinion, are at Missouri and Tennessee, with wins at Auburn, Florida and Alabama appearing to be much more difficult to envision.
Based on each team’s 2019 final results, the end of season Adjusted Net Efficiencies (ANE, points per possession) were:
LSU 4.111 DNP
Alabama 3.824 Away
Florida 3.380 Away
Georgia 3.372 Home
Auburn 2.942 Away
Texas A&M 2.231 DNP
Kentucky 1.850 N/A
Miss State 1.670 Home
South Carolina 1.642 Home
Missouri 1.575 Away
Tennessee 1.568 Away
Mississippi 1.498 Home
Arkansas 0.188 DNP
Vanderbilt 0.160 Home
The SEC average ANE for 2019 was 2.144 ppp.
As the table shows, four of the Cats’ 2020 opponents finished stronger than the Cats in 2019, and of these four opponents, the Cats must play three of them on the road (Alabama, Florida, and Auburn). Furthermore, the Cats finished stronger than the remaining six opponents, and of these, the Cats will entertain 4 of the 6 at Kroger Field. The three SEC teams that are not on the UK 2020 schedule are LSU, Texas A&M, and Arkansas. The average ANE of UK’s 2020 conference opponents is 2.163 ppp, which is slightly above the overall conference average.
Of course, the obvious must be stated that teams are not static entities, and some members of the SEC will be stronger in 2020 than they were in 2019 and some members of the SEC will be weaker. It is impossible to know prior to the season which teams will go up or down from last season’s performance levels. Based solely on the 2019 results, the Cats should be favored to win six games and lose four.
However, given the venues and the relative strengths of all of these teams in 2019, the four losses have theoretical margins of -15 ½ points (at Auburn) to -26 points (at Alabama), and the 6 wins have theoretical margins of 1 point (at Missouri and at Tennessee) to 22 ½ points (Vanderbilt). If the Cats level of performance slips a significant amount from its 2019 levels, five of the six projected wins could be in jeopardy. In contrast, to convert any of the four projected losses into the win column would take substantial improvement by the Cats over their 2019 performance levels.
Based on Stoops’ long-term trend of improvement and the 2019 final results, the 2020 Cats are more likely to show significant improvement from their 2019 ANE of 1.850 ppp. The first test for the Cats, at Auburn, will provide a very quick glimpse into the future for these Cats. A loss at Auburn by 2 touchdowns or more will be a worrisome outcome. However, a win over Auburn on opening day could signal the start of a very strong season.
As we sit here about 3 weeks away from the opening kickoff, I foresee a 6-4 season, with the potential of 8-2 if the Cats beat Auburn.
— Richard Cheeks
Vaught’s note: Richard Cheeks has his own statistical formula for calculating wins and losses and regularly shares his thoughts on vaughstviews.com
