Receiver Josh Ali and the UK offense have struggled this year but offensive coordinator Eddie Gran has shown he knows how to field a productive offense during his career. (Vicky Graff Photo)
There’s no other way to slice and dice it — Kentucky’s offense has been putrid in 2020. The Cats can’t seem to get into any kind of a rhythm and game after game they haven’t been able to execute any type passing game — short or long. It looks like the anemic performance from last Saturday when UK scored only three points against No. 5 Georgia was the final straw. Based on the fan response on social media one would think that the main problem with the offense is the lack of creative play calling by UK offensive coordinator Eddie Gran. But is it?
Here’s what Kentucky coach Mark Stoops had to say about the offensive performance against Georgia and Gran in particular after the game: “I thought they did a good job at times today. We were creative with keeping a really, really talented defense on their heels, as far as the run game, some of the sets we ran. We were giving our kids an opportunity to be successful and move it but we do, we have to create explosive plays in the pass game. We have to be more creative, we do have to take shots. Eddie knows that. Eddie’s been hard on himself.”
But should everyone be so down on Gran right now. Emotionally one could say yes. The comments I hear frequently are that Gran’s offenses are boring, too vanilla, don’t score enough points and don’t throw the ball enough to win games in the SEC. Are all those comments accurate and justified? Was it a sad day when Stoops hired Gran to be his offensive coordinator back in 2016? Let’s take a look.
Let’s look at how Gran’s teams have performed on the field at UK. From 2016 through 2019, four full seasons, Gran-led teams have averaged 27.3 points per game over 52 games. Kentucky’s record over that time period has been 32-20 overall and 16-16 in the SEC.
Now, without some perspective — something to use as a measuring stick — those are just numbers. What do they really mean?
First of all let’s look at the overall record. Eddie Gran-coached teams have a winning percentage of 61.5 percent. Some might think that’s not good until it is compared with Kentucky’s historical winning percentage. If one were to compare that to the all-time winning percentage of Kentucky football – 49.8 percent – then 61.5 looks great. Only Hall of Fame coach Bear Bryant teams of the 1950’s had a better winning percentage than that at UK over four years.
So hearing those winning statistics some might argue, “That has nothing to do with offense, it’s all defense.” But is it? Once again, let’s take a look.
We know now that these Gran-led offensive teams have won more games than any other group of UK teams except for Bryant’s, but what about scoring points. Do his offenses actually score any points or do they live off the defense holding the other team?
The only way to really find out if Gran’s offenses are any good is to compare them to some type of measuring stick — something to judge their effectiveness at scoring points. What better measuring stick than the Hal Mumme/Mike Leach-led offenses from 1997 to 2000? Those offenses, with Heisman Trophy Finalist Tim Couch as the quarterback for most of that time, were considered by many to be the most prolific point scoring offenses in UK history.
During that four year span those Hal Mumme teams averaged 29.6 points per game over 46 games. That’s pretty impressive. But here’s what’s just as impressive. During the four years that Eddie Gran has been the offensive coordinator at Kentucky — 2016 through 2019 — his teams have averaged 27.3 points per game over a 52-game span. That’s only 2.3 less points per game than what is considered the most impressive offensive performances over four years by any UK teams in the history of Kentucky football.
And what’s even more impressive than that is Kentucky’s overall record and SEC record during both those time spans. Those Hal Mumme/Mike Leach teams had an overall record of 20-26 and an SEC record of 10-22. When compared with the current Stoops/Gran teams at 32-20 overall and 16-16 in the SEC — it makes the Gran offenses look all the more prolific. Not only do they score points, but they win ball games, and more importantly they win ball games in the SEC.
So, based on the facts, it’s very difficult to argue that Eddie Gran should be “on the hot seat” or that his offensive groups don’t score points or carry their weight in winning games. The facts just don’t bear that out.
When many are screaming for Gran to be fired they should instead be saying that this year’s offensive performance is just an aberration and that generally Gran has done a great job of getting his teams to score points. So much so that they compare very favorably with a Mumme Air Raid-type offense when it comes to putting points on the scoreboard.
With an overall winning record that is second only to the Bear Bryant-led teams in the 1950’s, a scoring offense that compares very favorably with Hal Mumme’s teams in the 1990’s and an SEC winning percentage that exceeds anything UK has seen in 70 years, it’s difficult to argue that Gran should be getting anything but additional praise and a raise — not a spot on the “hot seat”.
— Keith Peel
Comments are closed.