Will history repeat itself in Nashville?

Kentucky won't have midseason All-American guard Eli Cox at Vanderbilt after he was injured against Tennessee. Austin Dotson and Quinten Wilson will play in his spot. (UK Athletics Photo)

By KEITH PEEL, Contributing Writer

“We fear no one and respect everybody.”

That was a key quote from Kentucky coach Mark Stoops this week. I hope Stoops and all his players really believe that. In past years when the Vanderbilt game rolled around on the schedule, fans (and maybe players) start to talk about how much this Wildcat team needs a breather and how some of the guys that don’t normally get to play will get some air time on ESPN.

After a tough three-game losing streak to Georgia, Mississippi State, and Tennessee, that may be happening again. It would be easy to do. Kentucky is a 21.5 point favorite over the Commodores on the road, and most prognosticators including the gambling machine in Las Vegas believe that Cats will win, and win big. More than three touchdowns big.

But here’s one thing to think about. History seems to be a pretty good predictor for Kentucky football. Doesn’t matter who the coach is or who the players are.

Here’s what I mean. Kentucky loses on the road to Mississippi State almost every year. History shows that and UK graciously allowed it to happen again this year. Tennessee usually beats Kentucky in football, at home, and on the road, every year.

And yes I realize there are exceptions to these general rules but they are few and far between. Kentucky did win at Mississippi State in 2008 — that’s 13 years ago. Kentucky did beat Tennessee 34-7 in 2020 in Knoxville. But prior to that in the last 40 years, Kentucky had beaten the Vols only three times. Didn’t matter the coach or players, history said 90 percent of the time Kentucky would lose to Tennessee.

So I know some of you are asking, “Why all the doom and gloom when UK is on a three-game losing streak and Vanderbilt is next up on the schedule. Isn’t that just what the doctor ordered to end this streak?”

Maybe and maybe not.

The average margin of victory for Kentucky during the Stoops’ era against Vandy has been about 12 points. That’s pretty good. But some of those games have been close. Take last year. Kentucky was a 17 point favorite in Lexington. They won 38-35. Or look at the 2018 year with Benny Snell and the 10-win season when No. 14 Kentucky won in Lexington 14-7 but needed a fourth quarter length of the field drive late in the game to do it.

That’s the bad news. Based on history some years for some reason (and it’s about half the time) Vanderbilt keeps the game close.

But here’s the good news — those games usually occur in Lexington. I know it’s strange but during the Stoops’ era, Kentucky has only beaten Vanderbilt by more than seven points one time In Lexington. In fact, the average margin of victory for UK over Vandy during that time period has been 6.75 points.

Games in Nashville are a different story. The Wildcats under Stoops are .500 playing in Nashville. They lost 22-6 in 2013 and 2-17 in 2015 but since then they have blown out the Commodores in Vanderbilt Stadium — 44 to 21 in 2017 and 38 to 14 in 2019. So it appears that for some reason when Kentucky plays Vanderbilt on the road the Wildcats are focused and take care of business but when they play in Lexington it seems like the team takes the game for granted.

This Saturday hopefully history will continue to repeat itself and the Wildcats will more than cover the spread of 21.5 points. Just keep in mind that Vanderbilt may have starting running back, Rocko Griffin, and original starting quarterback Ken Seals, back from injury for this game. That could help their offense be a little more productive.

Also, keep in mind that as much as Vanderbilt has struggled this season (currently 0-5 in the SEC) the Commodores have improved from game to game. Over their last three games, they lost to South Carolina on the road 21-20 on a last-second touchdown, they lost to Mississippi State 45-6 in Nashville and they lost to Missouri 37-28, also in Nashville.

It seems like historically Kentucky has played pretty well in Nashville in the last couple of meetings between these teams and Vandy continues to struggle at home. Hopefully, those “historical” trends will continue this Saturday and the Wildcats will be focused and play up to their potential.

If they do it appears they can cover that 21.5 point spread (they’ve done it six times this year) but if they take the game for granted, with all the injuries they have, it could be a game decided by seven points or less.

Since I threw my crystal ball and broke it after the Tennessee victory, I’ll have to take a historical guess and say the Cats win 31-14. If that happens I would be exactly what the doctor ordered.