Would shooting more 3-point shots give UK a better chance to be an elite team? (Jeff Houchin/Nolan Media)
Watching Kentucky dispatch a competitive but undersized Mount St. Mary’s team 80-55 on Tuesday night helped to identify three elements of the Wildcat’s game that could decide how far the Cats go as a team this season.
First of all, when this Kentucky team plays with effort and execution it shows what type of defensive team it can be. We saw that early in the second half when the Cats turned what had been a 38-27 very competitive game at the half into a rout early in the second half by going on a 13-0 run — a run that was started by better defense. For the game, the Wildcats held Mount St. Mary’s to 34 percent shooting from the field. That type of defensive effort usually means Kentucky will win the game. Kentucky teams under John Calipari are 80-0 when they hold opponents to 55 points or under.
That’s why defense is so critical to the success of the John Calipari basketball system. It will be just as critical this season regardless of how well this team shoots the ball.
Secondly, this team plays its best basketball when players stick to their respective roles on offense and don’t try to do too much, meaning they eliminate all the “me first” plays and instead do what they individually do best for the good of the team. For instance, Keion Brooks is valuable to the team as a rebounder and defender with an occasional basket scored on a fast break or put back. He is not a player that will lead the Cats in scoring (he is a 45 percent shooter from the field and 25 percent 3-point shooter for his career) and doesn’t help the team by taking 3-point shots or even contested mid-range 2-point shots. That’s not his strength.
Conversely, TyTy Washington needs to realize that he is still a freshman that has only played three regular-season college games and has a lot to learn. He, and the team, would be better served if he continued to focus on his defense and becoming a better playmaker at the point guard position than constantly trying to go one-on-one and score the basketball. Understanding roles on the team and then willingly playing those roles will be what helps to make this team special. As the year goes along and his offense improves he can take on a larger scoring role, which will then help the team.
Thirdly, John Calipari loves a post-oriented offense that includes a pick and roll scenario with a talented big man. That’s great, and that type of basketball can win quite a few games but in my opinion, it won’t take Kentucky to the National Championship game in New Orleans next April. What can help the Cats reach the goal of playing in a Final Four and potentially winning it all is shooting, as in excellent outside shooting.
There is no quicker way to bury an opponent than to play lockdown defense on one end of the floor and knock down multiple 3-point shots at the other end of the floor. Not only does it immediately provide some breathing room in a tight game but it also demoralizes the opponent and in some cases causes them to press and begin to play more one on one basketball. After that bad things tend to snowball for the opponent.
UK fans have seen it happen. I hate to bring up bad memories but one needs to think no further than the UK-Wisconsin game in the 2015 Final Four. In that game, UK shot 15 times inside the 3-point line but outside the paint area (mid-range two-pointers). They only hit six of those shots. Wisconsin took eight of those type shots and hit three. The Badgers took 17 3-point shots and hit seven. That’s 41 percent. UK shot five 3-point shots and hit three. That’s 60 percent.
UK lost by seven points. Think what the outcome of the game could have been if the Calipari offense had generated more 3-point shots, let’s say 15 more, instead of the mid-range two-point shots that it does generate. The Cats, shooting 60 percent on 3’s, would have scored 27 more points and the game would have been a rout. Even if they had only eliminated half those bad two-point shots and replaced them with 3-point shots at a 60 percent rate Kentucky would have scored an extra 11 points which would have been enough to win the game.
That same scenario could occur this season. UK is currently the 20th best 3-point shooting team in the country and yet they are tied for 247th in number of 3-point shots taken.
Those statistics tell me that the Kentucky offense is leaving points on the table by continuing to take mid-range 2-point shots instead of shooting more 3-point shots. It makes no sense to have a team that is 20th in the country in 3-point percentage and still continue to have the players shooting contested 2-point shots from 10-15 feet. It only sets UK up for a potential repeat of the Wisconsin-type loss where better 3-point shooting could win the game.
In the Mount St Mary’s game, Kentucky shot 47 percent of its shots from mid-range and hit 50 percent. Sounds pretty good until one realizes that even shooting 3-point shots at a 40% clip (as they did against Mount St Mary’s) equates to shooting 60% from 2-point range; something the Wildcats will not do if they continue to shoot mid-range 2-point shots. All this shows that the 3-point shot has become the great equalizer in college basketball.
So as this season moves forward keep an eye on the offense that develops with this team. John Calipari implied that the coaching staff put in some tweaks to the offense to get Oscar Tshiewbe more mid-range two-point shots. Increasing the number of mid-range two-point shots might be great for Oscar Tshiebwe’s personal development but I don’t think it helps Kentucky get the most out of the offensive weapons they have, and in my opinion that is what will be necessary for the Wildcats to still be playing basketball on the first weekend in April.
4 Responses
If we had gone to KAT in the paint (2 pointers) at the end instead of freelancing with the Harrison twins (two pointers), we would not have lost. It was not whether we shot 2’s or 3’s, but whether we took good shots or bad shots. And remember we were not a very god 3-point shooting team that year – 40% from 3 would have been great – but unlikely to happen (I realize they did hit 3 of 5 3’s in the game but that only means there would have been more misses at the end – and still likely a loss).
Take good shots and win or take bad shots and lose – it’s really pretty simple. 🙂
The biggest thing that holds our teams back is Calipari’s archaic offense. It leaves too many guys standing around while the other 2 play pick and roll. Sahvir is dribbling way too much. Good teams will shut that down. We still don’t know how to make a post pass and we aren’t looking for enough 3’s off the pass. I doubt that Coach will change his spots at this point in his career.
Let’s the players coach themselves unlike Pitino and Joe B Hall. Unbelievable. I’d like to see 40 minutes of hell. Nola Richardson can chime in on dat! Full court press would dominate today’s game.
Wisconsin revenge in Tampa….
6th Bowl in a Row. Great job coach Stoops!!!
Imo basketball needs to go-to a a 10 ⭐ system rather than a 5. Parity is what it’s all about
Good luck in the rugged SEC