Is Kentucky a legitimate Final Four team

Kentucky has played its best this year when Keion Brooks was in the game with Oscar Tshiebwe. (Jeff Houchin/Nolan Media)

So how good is this current group of basketball Wildcats? That is a question that has been on my mind after these last few games. The Cats opened the season with what seemed to be a very competitive 79-71 loss to Duke at Madison Square Garden in the Champions Classic. Since then they have reeled off six straight wins with the closest margin of victory being 18 points against what is believed to be a future NCAA Tournament team in the Ohio Bobcats. Most of the other five wins were in the 25-30 point margin of victory range.

At first glance, that seems pretty impressive. Anytime a John Calipari-coached Kentucky team averages 85 points a game and has a record of 6-1 it must be playing some really exceptional basketball.

But is that really the case? Let’s take a look. UK is currently ranked No. 9 in the Associated Press college basketball poll, No. 10 in the USA Today Coaches Poll and No. 13 in the Kenpom Rankings. It appears that the voters feel like the Wildcats are pretty good. Unfortunately though, the competition so far has not been. Other than Duke who is ranked No. 1 in both polls (prior to its loss to Ohio State) and is No. 7 in the Kenpom Rankings, only one other opponent cracked the Top 100 in Kenpom. That would be Ohio at No. 99.

All the other teams Kentucky has played so far — Robert Morris, Mt. Saint Mary’s, Albany, North Florida, and Central Michigan — are ranked at No. 292, 310, 306, 259, and 321 respectively. Those are teams you do not want on your resume when tournament time rolls around.

So again, is this team really good or just feasting on bottom-dwelling teams that do a good imitation of the Washington Generals who in the past were regularly destroyed by the Harlem Globetrotters?

Statistically, UK seems to do pretty well. This season with a lineup that includes Oscar Tshiewbe and Keion Brooks, Kentucky has averaged 143 points per 100 possessions. Keep in mind that is mostly against teams that are in the bottom 300 of all NCAA teams. But, as a point of reference, last season Gonzaga’s No. 1 rated offense played five games against below 300 teams and averaged 133 points per 100 possessions. That comparison would seem to indicate that these Cats are an offensive machine when Tshiewbe and Brooks are in the game.

Just as a side note, the team performs very poorly when Brooks and Tshiewbe (especially Oscar) aren’t in the game. UK shoots a 61 percent effective rate from the field (58  percent from 2’s and 48 percent from 3’s) when both Tshiewbe and Brooks are in the game versus an effective field goal percentage of 42 percent (43 percent from 2’s and 26 percent from 3’s) without Tshiewbe and Brooks (statistics courtesy of Hoopsinsight.com).

That tells me that this Kentucky team could be very, very good by season’s end if Tshiewbe learns how to stay out of foul trouble. With Tshiewbe in the game the opponent’s defense has to play straight up, they cannot afford to double team Tshiewbe down low for fear of the Cats hitting 48 percent from 3-point range.

 On the flip side opponents also know they cannot rotate off Tshiewbe to stop Kentucky’s dribble penetration because of the inside presence and rebounding that Tshiewbe provides. The extra benefit to that offensive scenario is not only can the opponent’s defense not double team Tshiewbe, but they also cannot provide help-side defense when Savhir Wheeler beats his man off the dribble (which is pretty regular) because that leaves Tshiewbe open for the dunk.

This type of offensive dilemma for opponent’s defense creates a miserable conundrum for them to solve, namely, how do they stop allowing open 3-point shots to UK’s perimeter players (remember that 48 percent 3-point shooting) while still stopping Wheeler from getting to the rim where he averages he has a 91 percent field goal percentage.

It’s a difficult problem to solve for the opposing coach. Since the defense has to give up something, do they give up dunks by Tshiewbe at the rim or layups to Wheeler or maybe 3-point shots? So far it looks like teams have tried all different types of defensive adjustments without much luck. The most likely scenario to me appears to be that coaches will try to give up the 3-point shot to select players and hope the Cats have an off-night.

All of that bodes well for a team that is trying to put a 9-16 record from last season behind it and is still trying to figure out where all the pieces fit. My guess is if this team can avoid more injuries and illnesses and can instead begin to get the younger guys playing for the team instead of themselves and get the older guys to start using their experience to their advantage this team could probably end up as an Elite Eight group.

To have the potential to be a Final Four team they would have to develop more talent under the basket to overcome when Tshiewbe is out of the game, and during the stretch run through the SEC season and NCAA Tournament he will be out of the game a lot more than he has been in these last seven games. There are too many past performances by previous UK teams on the road in the SEC and in the NCAA Tournament to believe that teams will not target Tshiewbe in most games. Unfortunately, that’s just how the game is played in big-time basketball.

So it appears the Wildcats have shown a lot of potential as individuals but need a lot more growth as a team if they want to have a shot at achieving their goal of hanging banner No. 9 in the rafters of Rupp Arena.

That growth should start in earnest once they begin mixing it up with some higher quality teams, especially on the road. It looks like that will take place beginning with Notre Dame on the road in the middle of December. Should be a lot of fun. Try to stay calm and enjoy the ride.