DJ Wagner is the nation's No. 1 recruit but there is no guarantee signing him means a team will win a national title. (Twitter Photo)
There’s been a lot of local discussion recently about DJ Wagner, the No. 1 ranked high school basketball recruit, and whether he will end up signing with either coach John Calipari and the University of Kentucky Wildcats or coach Kenny Payne and the University of Louisville Cardinals.
UofL recently upped the ante in the recruiting war for Wagner by hiring DJ Wagner’s grandfather, Milt Wagner, to a position outside the athletic department that involves player development and alumni relations. That move may have been the one that puts the Cardinals over the top, literally and figuratively, in the race for DJ Wagner.
It appears from most recruiting analyst’s recent crystal ball predictions that Wagner may, in fact, end up as a Louisville Cardinal.
So, if that happens, how important is that to UofL, and more importantly, how critical is that to Kentucky’s chances of winning a national championship?
Based on the previous history of former national champions it doesn’t really appear to matter at all. In looking at college programs since 2011 that have recruited the No. 1 ranked high school player and how they fared that season in capturing the national championship, after the Kentucky team that featured No 1 recruit Anthony Davis in 2011-2012, not a single school that recruited the No. 1 player went on to win the national championship that same season.
Not a single team that signed the No 1 recruit (after that Anthony Davis-led Kentucky team in 2012) even made an appearance in the Final Four in that same season and there were some very impressive blue blood teams and players in the mix. Teams like Kansas with Andrew Wiggins in 2013 and Josh Jackson in 2016; Duke in 2017 and 2018 with Marvin Bagley and RJ Barrett; and Gonzaga with Chet Holmgren in 2022.
So what does this mean for UK if they were to lose DJ Wagner to Louisville? It might mean that UK would have a much better shot at making the Final Four without Wagner on the roster if past history is any indicator of how a team’s future performance might play out.
Also remember that UK, the only team that did win it all with a No 1 recruit on the roster, also had the No 2 recruit in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and the No 6 recruit, Marquis Teague, to go along with No 1 recruit Anthony Davis.
Another thing to keep in mind is that UK is also one of those programs during that time period that had a No 1 recruit with not much to show for it. Nerlens Noel was the No 1 recruit in 2012 but ultimately went down with a season-ending injury during that 2012-2013 season and that UK team ended the season with a 59-57 loss to Robert Morris in the first round of the NIT.
The more one checks the facts the more it becomes clear that successfully recruiting the No. 1 high school player may be more of a curse than a blessing.
There are coaches out there, Bill Self at Kansas and Mike Krzyzewski of Duke being two, that could testify to the fact that having the No 1 high school recruit on the roster only guarantees one thing — a lot of hoopla and media attention that may be a distraction to the team at best and may create overconfidence at worst.
Either way, based on previous history it doesn’t appear to improve a team’s chances of making a Final Four or winning a National Championship — both goals that Calipari needs to reach if he wants to continue to claim the position of the “gold standard” of college basketball.
10 Responses
I feel he’s leaning to Louisville, but in what I have read by other sources that he may become a cat after all. Time will tell.
I would rather have a sure thing # 20 player that really wants to play here and really fits Cals system than to keep swinging for the fences, missing, then having to scramble and settle for whoever is left, whether he fits or not.
And, I am not sure yet, but it is looking like the transfer portal might be a better option for getting proven guys who fit your system if used properly. Especially, if u can get 2 yr guys….I’m still not convinced that 2012 and 2014 proves you can build dependable Championship contending teams with a large majority of freshmen who have their sights set on 1 year of college then hope to go to the NBA.
I’m not even sure we can still get a large majority of top freshmen to come here. I hope this season roster is a sign of change, however, I personally believe we are going to have to be more aggressive in the portal. We have some good and great guys, but THIS IS Ky – I would like to think we could have had a couple of more proven great players out of the portal at a position or two?
It appears we are going to be happy with a 9.5 scholarship player team this season – praying everyone that needs to, (without naming names) takes huge steps in their game and praying we have no injuries? Otherwise we are going to see some of the same weaknesses that we saw last year.
For example- Cal said yesterday that last year’s team was missing rim protection- yep, and what have we done to solve that problem? No one has grown 3 inches over the summer? We wanted Leonard Miller, but he stayed in the draft – so….. oh well? Not going after anyone else?
Hope Cal knows something we don’t but the last several years don’t give me a lot of confidence……
Great article Keith! I’d like to see UK build teams the way Jay Wright has done it at Villanova. Wright has won two national titles since 2016 and both teams were loaded with upperclassmen. Wright has figured out how to get recruits that stay 3-4 years and produce winning teams. Coach Cal’s obsession with the NBA is a terrible distraction and hurts the team. This fan hopes one & done is done forever. Recruit team players.
Like Cal.
Who would you replace him with ?
However, sometimes I think he “doesn’t know what he doesn’t know”.
Along those lines – Collins can take a silver dollar off the top of the bank board – and can’t protect the rim some two feet below ?????????
His brother is a walk on on our team. That’s always good.
That’s why he may become a cat Steven. Good point!!!
it can only help
Or Kareem could transfer to U of L if DJ decides to go there. One never knows what is going on behind the scenes
If Grandpa is on the payroll at Loserville he is a Cardinal for sure is my guess. By the way, Payne may be a real thorn in Calipari’s side, all in due time, and on the recruiting trail in particular.