John Calipari has four Final Four appearances at UK but also is 4-14 against top 25 teams in the last five years. (Vicky Graff Photo)
With the UK Basketball program (and fans) feeling the pain of several years of mediocre (I’m trying to be kind) performance and John Calipari seemingly on the precipice of leaving to go to Texas or (fill in the blank) it seems that there is a certain segment of the media and fan base that believe the grass could never be greener on the other side should Calipari decide to leave.
Normally I might agree with them but in this particular case I have to take exception with that thinking.
For the grass to be “greener” a new coach coming in would have to do better than John Calipari’s coaching performance recently (because in my opinion it’s not going to dramatically improve in the future). Initially that would be to win at least 67 percent of all games (Cal’s overall percentage since signing his lifetime contract in 2018), go 4-14 against Top 25 competition (since 2019-2020 season), get into the NCAA Tournament two times and have zero wins, and win one SEC Tournament game over a three-year span.
Calipari’s performance this season is currently 10-6 overall, 1-3 in the SEC and 0-4 against Quad 1 teams. The NCAA Tournament projections, after the devastating loss to No. 241 South Carolina, should have Kentucky squarely out of making this year’s NCAA Tournament.
I firmly believe there are plenty of great coaches currently coaching in the NCAA ranks that could easily exceed those statistics at UK. I believe there are quite a few coaches that could get the Kentucky Basketball program back to relevancy in the college basketball world. There are a few that could once again make the program elite.
If John Calipari left tomorrow I have no doubt Kentucky would be able to find a coach that could carry on the winning tradition of the program.
Now, for the elephant in the room, next year’s recruiting class. Many fans (and media members) are wringing their hands over the potential of losing next year’s top ranked recruiting class; one that is being labeled as a “can’t miss” class.
Here’s something to consider though. John Calipari has had seven No. 1 ranked recruiting classes in his 14 years at UK. Most of his other seven classes have been ranked No. 2. He currently has one national championship (2012) and four Final Four appearances during his tenure at UK.
But keep in mind that Kentucky has 17 overall appearances in the Final Four — Adolph Rupp had 6, Joe B Hall had 3, Rick Pitino had 3 and Tubby Smith had 1.
That means that Calipari has one more appearance in the Final Four than Pitino who coached eight years at UK or Joe B Hall who coached 13 years at Kentucky. It has been done before by previous coaches and it will be done again in the future by a different coach.
There’s no guarantee that John Calipari would make the Final Four or win a championship with next year’s recruiting class. Losses in 2009 and 2015 should be great examples of what can go wrong in a one-game tournament setting. This season should be a great example of what can go wrong even with talented players.
So the bottom line is that if John Calipari were to decide to leave after 14 years fans should wish him well and look forward to the next chapter of Kentucky Basketball. Sometimes the grass can be greener on the other side and in this current situation I think it’s time to take a look.
6 Responses
The grass can’t be greener argument occurs whenever a coaching change is necessary.
I believe the administration should base these decisions on performance standards, and in this case, Calipari has not been satisfying his own stated performance standard for many years. As Keith points out in his analysis, the performance standard is final four appearances for UK basketball.
The same performance standard will apply to the next coach who takes the seat, and if that coach fails to perform, then it is next guy up.
The problem is not that the administration does not recognize the performance failures. The problem is the administration has created a situation here that prevents action due to a $50+ million buyout created in the current contract.
As UK gets past this debacle, the person or persons responsible for that ridiculous contract must also be eliminated from the UK ranks.
People talk like Calipari is the reason UK Basketball is what it is. I don’t like Cal, but I do believe he used to be a very, very good coach. He used to have some Memphis teams that no one wanted to play. For some reason, he has gotten away from that type of play.
UK will be relevant to recruits, no matter who the coach is, and it is the players that make the team; but it takes a coach to put them together and create the team.
I think Coach Cal lost many Kentucky fans with the infamous flag kneeling incident in the past. At this moment in time though UK has a basketball coach that is seemingly losing his grip on his program. A program that is currently sporting a losing record, and all at a school that happens to be a basketball " blue blood." That can’t happen at Kentucky. Calipari has been given much in time and treasure to produce results, but not produced near enough in winning championships with the talent he has had. Many see his focus on the NBA draft is more important to him than UK basketball. Certainly the generous contract coach has is a thorn in the side of the current UK Administration, and makes it very costly to part company and look for a new coach. That type of deal must never happen with any coach at UK ever again IMO.
As for the Professor’s opinion, I agree that change is needed for a new basketball coach at UK, and NOW!!! As for as removing the AD, which he is hinting at, I think Mitch Barnhart has done a decent job, generally, with the oversight of all the sports programs at UK, especially the football team. Another example or two is the women’s volleyball team, rifle, men’s soccer, etc. The Calipari situation is a real problem for Mr. Barnhart right now, and one that could cause some other heads to roll and not just his. People above the AD had to approve this deal Calipari has, right? This sort of revenue burner in any business that is "results driven" would be dealt with severely by a Board of Directors. There is no coach worth what these universities are paying these days, especially if they are not putting winners on the floor or field. Saban has felt a little bit of the pressure this year, and if he begins losing he will be gone quickly at a football power house like Alabama. Kentucky basketball is the same type animal. Much is expected at Kentucky! My prediction, Cal resigns and takes a job elsewhere or simply retires. I don’t see how he survives the year with this current team. Now, who would take his place? UK needs not only a great basketball mind and coach but also a great recruiter.
It’s time to wipe the slate clean, even if it means losing all of the 2023 recruits. As for his replacement…I would give Rick Pitino a 3 year deal. I know many think he is a low life, and in some ways he is, but he is a brilliant basketball mind. I would go so far as to make it a package deal with Richard coming on as an assistant who would then become head coach when Pop steps down. This move would assure a seamless transition after the first 3 years and would keep Pops out of trouble as Jr. would be assigned the task of keeping Pops focused on his task. They would be focused on winning championships at every level…pre-conference tourneys, SEC, and NCAA. They would bring kids in who have solid fundamentals, toughness, and a desire to win for UK. This would also double the impact of recruiting as both would be active with the high school kids and the portal as necessary. This would also give Richard time to adjust to the UK environment and refine his coaching skills. I could see Pops bringing home the bacon in the 3rd year and Jr. doing the same every 4 to 5 years. Call me silly, but this is the most immediate and complete solution to bringing UK back to blueblood status.
I can’t wait for Cal to leave and see who will come in and deal with the fans. I guarantee it will not be anyone you have ever heard of.
Hire Rick Pitino again, just put a chastity belt on him.
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