College basketball analyst Sean Vinsel sees 8-10 as most reasonable SEC mark for UK

In losses to Gonzaga, UCLA, Missouri, Alabama and South Carolina this season Kentucky has had the lead for a combined 96 seconds.

The Cats’ six losses going into Saturday’s game at No. 5 Tennessee are the most ever for a team that returned the Naismith National Player of the Year. Kentucky has also lost a home game (South Carolina) to a SEC team with a losing record for only the fourth time 85 years after first in 14 years.

So what is the best scenario for Kentucky (10-6)? That’s what I asked Sean Vinsel (@HoopsInsight on Twitter) who uses data-driven analysis for his coverage of Kentucky basketball.

“They are going to win some SEC games just on talent. There will be games where opponents don’t take advantage of what Kentucky does not do well, especially on defense,” Vinsel said.

“I think an 8-10 SEC record is very reasonable,” Vinsel said.

Who would have ever thought UK basketball would reach a point where 8-10 in conference play would be a “reasonable” expectation? Of course, if UK loses at Tennessee Saturday as expected, the Cats would have to finish 7-6 in SEC play to get to 8-10.

“I think there are too many good coaches who know Kentucky’s tendencies and how easy they are to exploit,” Vinsel said. “Kentucky is walking into games at a disadvantage. That’s why if they win more than eight (SEC) games it will mean the coaching staff made real changes and at this point I just don’t see that happening.

“The general strategy of college basketball has changed to exploit some things Kentucky does or doesn’t do. New coaches come into the league or college basketball looking for ways to exploit what everybody does and they have found things that work against Kentucky.”

Vinsel also noted that Kentucky is doing things to hurt itself. In the 26-point loss at Alabama, Kentucky only took seven of 73 shots in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock.

“Early shots are not always good shots but teams tend to take early shots because they are open after pushing the ball up the court. Sahvir (Wheeler) is excellent in these situations and getting the ball to guys in rhythm,” Vinsel said. “Early in the season they had a ton of success doing that with Antonio (Reeves). It lets you attack differently.

“That is how Kentucky should get the ball to Oscar (Tshiebwe) in the post before the defense sets up. That doesn’t work if you wait until all the defenders are back and set.”

In the loss to South Carolina, Vinsel said UK took 29 shots rated “low quality” attempts and most were pull-up jumpers. Kentucky got only eight “high quality” shots against South Carolina and five were dunks.

“You cannot run a successful offense if you have those numbers,” Vinsel said. “You can complain players are not hitting shots but every single year John Calipari has been at UK his teams take more mid range shots than any team in the country.

“It’s like they are going to get low quality shots, they have to get lots of offensive rebounds and that means they are not getting back in transition and teams are scoring easier in transition against them.”

Vinsel is also not a fan of how Kentucky plays when it does have a lead late in games.

“My least favorite thing is taking as much time off the clock as possible and then having Sahvir create. He’s not the right player for that,” Vinsel said. “Cason (Wallace) and Antonio are better at creating (shots). Kentucky runs useless actions without looking to shoot.”

Lack of free throws has also become a big problem the last two years for UK along with shot blocking.

“A lot of the best John Calipari teams have had really good rim protectors. They don’t play that guy (Ugonna Onyenso) this year. He was elite early and can cover issues they have on defense but he doesn’t play and they just don’t have anyone else who consistently protects the rim.”