Kentucky has now lost nine games and may not have a gimme win left on the schedule.
Kentucky has six regular-season games left. Mississippi State, Florida and Arkansas will be road games while the Cats will play Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Auburn in Rupp Arena.
Kentucky plays at Mississippi State Wednesday. The Bulldogs have won five straight games and four straight in Southeastern Conference play, including a 70-64 win over Arkansas — the same team that battered UK in Rupp Arena last week. Five of State’s seven conference losses were by a combined 30 points.
And don’t look now but Vanderbilt has won three straight games, including a win over Tennessee and a win at Florida Saturday.
Alabama leads the SEC at 12-0 with Texas A&M, a team UK did beat, next at 10-2. Tennessee, another team UK beat, is 8-4 while Missouri, Auburn and UK are all 7-5. Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Florida are 6-6 with Mississippi State and Georgia both 5-7.
So how many of the remaining six regular-season games will Kentucky win knowing the Cats have to win at least four, and probably five, to get back into the NCAA Tournament projections?
One avid Kentucky basketball fan on Twitter — @mrs_basketball — I follow who seems to always have an interesting perspective was not shy with her feelings after Saturday’s loss at Georgia.
“I really don’t see any wins left. I originally predicted 2-6 down the last 8 games winning this game and Auburn. Now I’m saying 0. Lose on Wednesday in the SEC (Tournament) and lose first round of NIT. There are no wins left,” she posted.
But wait. She had more when I noted the Georgia game might have been the “easiest” game UK had left and it lost that game.
”Yep. Precisely. This was the easiest one left by a WIDE margin,” @mrs_basketball responded to me on Twitter. “You expect Cal to have this squad ready to go win the SEC tournament? Absolutely no chance. My guess is they pee down their leg in the opening round. Then are they getting up to play the NIT? Nodda. It’s done.”
She wasn’t alone with her despair. My Twitter timeline had these nuggets after Saturday’s loss:
— “CODE BLUE! CODE BLUE in Lexington. Prepare for postseason last rites.”
— “Just want this season over with. These players need to leave and Kentucky need to find 50 million, fire Cal, start over.”
— Looking at UNC, Duke and UK, the ‘Blue Bloods’ aren’t guaranteed anything these days. Think the portal has evened things up. Add that we may have overestimated talent levels of certain transfers and recruits, we just have no margin for error.”
— “This isn’t UK basketball — gold standard be damned!”
I could have listed a lot more from frustrated fans — as well as some from fans not as upset. But the bottom line is UK basketball just has far more questions than answers and that certainly is not a good spot to be on Feb. 13.
7 Responses
There may not be any wins left.
I’ve haven’t gave up on this team yet. Just my saying.
I see the finish at 2-4.
Tonight Calipari cited the 2022 UNC finish to make the point that all things are possible. Yes, all things are possible, and the 2022 UNC finish does provide some solace and hope for this UK team, but it is one of possibilities rather than probabilities.
In support of Calipari’s comparision,
On Feb16 2022, UNC lost at home to #195 Pitt by 9 points and the UNC record was 18-8, 10-5. with a pomeroy rank of #49
On Feb 11, 2023, UK lost on the road to #117 Georgia by 7 points and the UK record is 16-9, 7-5. with a pomeroy rank of #43
UNC finished their regular season 5-0 by beating #19 VaTach, #127 UL, #128 NC State, #40 Syracuse, and #8 Duke.
To match the UNC finish, presumably UK would have to beat #40 Miss St., #4 Tennessee, #49 Florida, #28 Auburn, #90 Vandy, and #23 Arkansas.
This is where the Calipari analogy begins to break down. UK’s final opponents have an average rank of 39 while UNC’s final opponents had an average rank of # 70.
UNC’s 8 losses to their "turning point" were to #14, #9, #6, #38, #41, #35, #8, and #195, and average rank of #44. UNC’s best wins prior to their "turning point" were against #19 and #27.
UK’s 9 losses to this "turning Point" have been to #30, #15, #3, #48, #2, #231, #9, #23, and #116, and the average rank of #53. UK’s best wins prior to this supposed "turning point" have been against #4 and #33.
All things are possible, of course.
Duplicating the 2022 UNC turn around is not probable.
Calipari is grasping for straws.
Thanks for a great analysis Professor
I could see zero.
Wed Feb 15 39 Mississippi St. L, 66-62 63 36% Away ×
Sat Feb 18 5 Tennessee L, 69-65 65 36% Home ×
Wed Feb 22 49 Florida L, 71-69 68 41% Away ×
Sat Feb 25 18 Auburn W, 71-70 66 52% Home ×
Wed Mar 1 90 Vanderbilt W, 77-69 65 75% Home ×
Sat Mar 4 20 Arkansas L, 75-69 68 30% Away ×
Based on probability, UK should finish 2-4, with about a 58% opportunity to pick off a 3rd win.