Vicky Graff Photo
Kentucky coach Mark Stoops is counting on his team’s experienced defense heavily this season with 10 starters returning from last year.
The Wildcats have experience at multiple positions on defense, including linebackers Jamon Dumas-Johnson and D-Eryk Jackson, both of whom have been named to the Butkus Award Watch List. Cornerback Maxwell Hairston and defensive tackle Deone Walker are on the preseason Chuck Bednarik Watch List. Outside linebacker J.J. Weaver also returns this season.
Despite a solid nucleus of returnees, Stoops wants the Wildcats to improve in a variety of areas and spend less time on the field.
“We want to continue to get off the field. We did a decent job at times, but we have to get better at third down and executing and get some more three and outs, and get off the field. I’d like to see the offense have more possessions, more plays,” Stoops said. “We’ve talked about that with the tempo and the offense, but that goes hand‑in‑hand. The defense needs to play well and get off the field. When we have opportunities to get off the field we have to do that.”
Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White agreed and wants his unit to fare better on third-down situations than they did last season.
“When you look back and you self‑scout yourself, look at what you need to do better obviously, third‑down defense and, specifically, with the backend of the season, third-and-long situations, especially extra-long, was an area that, historically, if you look we have been really good, and we were not,” he said. ”Not anywhere close to the standard that we need to be at and it costs us.
“When you give up third‑downs, you extend drives and extended drives lead to points, it leads to less opportunities for the offense. So obviously, that is going to be a primary focus. Again, the year before 2022, was, sort of, our best year ever in third‑down defense, and there is a correlation to how well we played as a defense. We need to get back there.”
Stoops added the Wildcats were “disruptive” on defense last season, but wants them to create more negative plays.
“I think we were disruptive last year. I liked that,” Stoops said. ”I liked the fact that we created negative yardage plays. We had more sacks, we are getting some pressure, but we want to continue to build on that. You want to continue to be able to when you want to rush forward and get great pressure.
“Some of the best defenses we’ve had here was a predictable pass, you know, rushing forward and getting coverage and mixing up the coverage and getting good pressure.”
In a preseason scrimmage last week, Stoops was pleased with his team’s ability to defend the run and the team’s overall pass rush on defense.
“The older guys, frontline guys, have seen a lot of football played, a lot of football, are very physical and did a good job with pass rush,” Stoops said.
Stoops added that Weaver, a fifth-year senior, played well during the scrimmage.
“I’ve seen him working really hard. He showed up (in the scrimmage),” Stoops said. “I think you’re going to see a guy that plays with the consistency that you would expect from a guy that’s been around for a while and has the talent that he has. I like what I’m seeing there.”
8 Responses
To improve 3rd doen defense…
UK needs cornerbacks who can truly defend instead of having to give receivers 5 or more yards of space!
We know the DL led by Giant Walker and the LB’s will get their job done, but the secondary needs to be more aggressive and quit playing afraid they will get beat.
Hairston is a proven incredible defender, but some others have been inadequate covering receivers.
The coverage of receivers is a major key to UK racking up more than 6 or 7 wins.
Let me start off by saying this… JJ Weaver is being overlooked. He has been injured multiple times in his career and it set his play back a little bit. When he bent his arm the other way that looked so painful. Most players these days would have been done for the year. He came back at the end of the year and played great. I look for him to get double digit sacks this year. He will be in the top 3 all time in sacks at Kentucky. He might even challenge Josh Allen’s record if he has the year that I think he will have. As long as we can stay healthy we will be great. It’s injuries that I worry about. A couple injuries to a couple key guys and our season turns out different than I Imagine it does. Like I said 11-3 10-2(6-2) tied for 3rd in the SEC just missing the SEC championship. We sneak into the playoffs. Win the first game and lose the second game. 11-3 the most wins in like 50-60 years. Then all the Stoops haters can be mad we lost in the playoffs, but no other coach would stay long enough to build a program from the bottom up like he has. If Stoops would have left for Auburn about 5 years ago when they wanted him we would be on vanderbilts level and happy to be 6-6 and make a bowl. Stoops has brought Kentucky to relevant from recruiting. You can really thank big dog. Because without him we wouldn’t be half as good as we are. He brings in all the great recruits. This is the year when you will really see what recruit and develop looks like. We are 2 deep at every position as long as we don’t get the injury bug this will be magical season.
I agree that 3rd down conversion rates on defense provide an important read on the quality of a team’s defensive play. It is obvious that every team, each year, wants its defense to get more 3rd down stops “… than last year …” The same logic applies to an offense’s 3rd down conversion success rate. Each year, every coach wants his offense to convert 3rd downs at a higher rate “… than last year …”
Last year, UK’s defense ranked #106 out of 133 teams with a defensive 3rd down stop rate of 43.1%. UK’s average over the last 3 years has been 38.7% which ranks 59th, edging out Western Kentucky at #60. Over the last 3 years, the top 5 defenses in this category have been 1 Georgia (30.6%), 2 NC State (31.4%), 3 Alabama (31.7%) 4 Michigan (32.6%), and 5 Oklahoma St. (32.7%). Louisville finished the last 3 seasons at #12 (33.8%). Kentucky ranks 8th among SEC teams.
However, the story of 3rd down conversion rates are equally revealing about offenses. Last year, UK’s offense ranked #74 out of 133 teams with an offensive 3rd down conversion rate of 37.3%. UK’s average over the last 3 years has been 40.4% which ranks 44th, edging out Texas at #45. Over the last 3 years, the top 5 defenses in this category have been 1 Georgia (50.9%), 2 Oregon (49.2%), 3 Washington (48.6%) 4 Alabama (43.7%), and 5 USC (47.6%). Louisville finished the last 3 seasons at #64 (38.8%). Kentucky ranks 8th among SEC teams.
UK has been performing on both sides of the ball in the middle of the SEC pack. However, a better measure of the impact of 3rd down plays can be seen in looking at teams’ NET 3rd down rate margin. UK’s average 3rd down net rate ranked #50 out of 133 teams with a NET 3rd down conversion rate of 1.7% over the last 3 years, edging out a trio of ACC teams, Wake Forest, Maryland, and Pitt. Over the last 3 years, the top 5 programs in this category have been 1 Georgia (20.2%), 2 Alabama (15.9%), 3 Ohio State (14.0%) 4 Utah (13.3%), and 5 Michigan (12.2%). Louisville finished the last 3 seasons at #28 (5.0%). Kentucky ranks 9th among SEC teams.
It should be clear that these top 5 programs are not there by accident, and they represent four of the most heralded programs in college football history. This level of play establishes the standard which UK coaches, players, and administrators must aspire to achieve.
It seems clear that Coach Stoops has elevated the UK football program from the depths of the SEC, now occupied by by South Carolina and Vanderbilt to the middle of the SEC Pack. The addition of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC this season pushes UK down in this scramble, but UK remains in the middle of the pack, with or without these newest entries into the SEC.
The goal must be to compete for SEC (thus National) Championships, that the performance of this program over the last 3 years does not meet this criteria.
A top 10 defensive 3rd down stop rate is about 33.4% and a top 20 rate is 34.6%. A top 10 offensive 3rd down conversion rate is about 46.2% and a top 20 rate is 43.9%. This data indicates NET 3rd down conversion rate of about 9 to 13%. If I could set goals, for this category, my goal for an upcoming season would be a defensive 3rd down stop rate of at least 35% and an offensive 3rd down conversion rate of at least 45%.
Speaking in the platitudes that coaches (and players) want to do better this year than last is not sufficient. Goals and objectives must be framed in tangible and measurable ways. Otherwise, there is absolutely no objective basis to assess results and progress.
The real question for Coach Stoops is does he intend to lead this program into the elite zone of the SEC or hang around the muddy middle (5th to 12th place), and if so, on what schedule?
3rd down plays are possession plays, and they USUALLY DEPEND on which team WANTS IT MORE WHEN EACH 3RD DOWN OPPORTUNITY ARRIVES.
Another missed relationship is really 1st down effectiveness, which is overall team preparedness coupled with WHICH TEAM WANTS IT MOST.
WILL UK WANT IT MOST THIS SEASON?
I agree that Weaver has been and will be a key on D. As noted in my comments above, the DL AND LB’s will do their job. Weaver is one at LB who will “get it done” and then the test will be whether the secondary will participate at close range or lay back and offer free territory for short passes which keeps UK D on the filed.
The informative and critical stats presented by the Professor nail the importance of being specific by using stats for comparison and not the “general” need to “be bette than last season” without specific statistical goals.
Statistical success results in improved W-L records. General “goals” to do better than last season are too flimsy.
UK has some extremely good players this season but needs for the backup at every position to be much better than in years past. Then statistical goals can be set and accomplished.
I agree that Stoops has elevated UK FB… however it
••PEAKED @ 2 big seasons
and now has
PLATEAUED @ 7-6 twice.
Will Stoops lead UK to the elite level and remain there?
OR
Will Stoops keep UK in the broad “middle of the pack”?
That answer will prove just how well he has done. Remember he has had more support from UKAA than any UK FB coach in history. So 7-6 is not the yield from $9 million that UK should get.
Interesting comments & critical stats
I think it’s a make or break year for Stoops. If he can’t get it don’t with this much experience and this much talent then I doubt he ever gets it done. This Oklahoma and Texas first year in the SEC. Remember Missouri went to the SEC Championship their first year in the SEC. I think Oklahoma and Texas will shocked by the talent level they play every week. They also have the talent to keep up, but will it be to much? We play Texas at Texas. That’s probably the biggest game on the schedule. If you look at the schedule from the bottom to the top. It’s a very difficult schedule. The only thing going for us is 8 home games. If we protect our home field and even go 7-1 or 8-0. Then we go 50/50 on the road 2-2. Your looking at 9-3 or 10-2. I’m thinking with us having a ton of 5th and 6th and even a 7th year college kids we should be very good. Eli Cox is going to be 24 and M. Cox will be 25 years old. They will be going up against 20 and 21 year olds. They should be able to dominate. We will see in 13 days what we’re working with.
They did somewhat respectable on 3rd and short, but 3rd and 25+ they get beat every time. When you are told to back off, it is hard be as aggressive as you should be. UK was beaten many times on 3rd and long because they backed off. I would make them beat me under full blitz pressure in long situations.
We have to play to win instead of playing not to lose. We have to play a 3rd and 25 like we play a 3rd and 5. Our defense is good enough to not have to play not to lose. Let them dominate every down.