Kentucky contained Texas quarterback Arch Manning last week but could have a much more difficult task against Joey Aguilar and Tennessee. (Vicky Graff Photo)
Tennessee is coming off a disappointing 37-20 loss at Alabama, which had many Tennessee fans second-guessing the play-calling of coach Josh Heupel near the end of the first half. This led to an interception return for a score by Alabama, changing the game’s flow.
Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar suffered an undisclosed injury in the loss, but Heupel said Monday he will play Saturday night against Kentucky.
Aguilar leads the SEC with 1,948 yards passing, but threw the 99-yard interception return against Alabama and was also called for an intentional grounding penalty that resulted in a safety.
Tennessee’s passing attack leads the SEC at 310.7 yards per game and will certainly test UK’s defense a lot more than Texas quarterback Arch Manning last week. The Vols have the most productive wide receiver trio in the SEC. Chris Brazzell, Braylon Staley and Mike Matthews are all in the top 10 in the SEC in receiving yards. No other SEC team has three receivers in the top 15.
Brazzell’s production has dropped in recent games, but he is still the SEC leader in touchdown catches with seven and is second in receiving yards with 602. Staley is fifth in the SEC in receiving yards with 523 and leads all freshmen in the FBS. Matthews averaged a team-high 15.7 yards per catch and ranks 10th in the SEC in receiving yards with 455 yards.
Stoops understands how good the Tennessee offense can be, especially since Heupel is 4-0 against Kentucky.
“Tennessee is a bit more conventional with their splits this year, but still get wide at times and they do an exceptional job. The quarterback is playing at a very high level, with impressive arm strength, and their receivers could really put a lot of pressure on you. They win one-on-ones a lot and they do a great job of mixing it up,” Stoops said.
“With Josh and his offenses, we’ve talked about it here because we play them so much but people that don’t, don’t realize how effective they are in the run game. And this year, they’re rushing for 200 yards a game, throwing for 300. I believe they’re actually throwing it better than they have in some time. And that’s saying a lot, they generally throw it very well, but this year I feel like they’re even taking it to another level with their pass game.”
Stoops knows the Tennessee receivers are elite.
“Three very good receivers, one freshman and two older guys, they’re really elite. They really get out of their breaks. They put a ton of pressure on you with their speed,” Stoops said. “We know their big play capability but then they shut it down and the quarterback delivers it so they can get it there in a hurry.”
18 Responses
Seriously, if Tennessee shows up for the game period…it's all over.
Stoops doesn't have a clue how to stop Josh Heupel. He has completely dominated Stoops for the last 4 years. 3-4 years ago our team was on another level. We don't have a snowball chance in hell to beat Tennessee. Especially with Aguilar playing QB. If he was hurt I would say we have a chance. With him playing we have no chance in hell.
With the porous pass D we have run for last several yrs, we really don't have a chance of the real UT shows up. They also have a significant psych advantage also bc they have owned us. I would bet there is only a small % of the team and staff that really feels we can beat them.
There's always a chance, albeit a small one.
UK 28
UT 33
For years, my good friend Professor has been so close in score projections, I have gotten to where seldom question them. A so, I had to think about the 28-33 score and then realized how it can happen.
UK could score 28 points IF Boyer is not choked by the HC & OC. Boley was 31-39 padding last week! Wow! That is impressive!
Boyer should be given the freedom to call all
Offensive plays, leaving the OC outside the stadium. He would use the RB’s much more effectively by letting them run outside and catch some short passes instead of only running up the middle. The excellent TE’s would be more involved getting more passes since they have been the most consistent receivers.
The UK secondary has been more porous than Swiss cheese and will have difficulty holding TN to 33 UNLESS Boley has thr freedom mentioned above and therefore can keep the UK offense on the field to limit the number of possessions and snaps TN gets in the game.
How can UK “trap” the HC & OC to stay away from the stadium? I don’t know about Hamden, but rumor has it that the HC may have enjoyed some time with an intern of some sort, so distractions are possible.
I would like to see UK take a new direction and hire a new head coach, I do, but reality is a $40 mil buyout to send Coach Stoops packing, so that won't happen I don't think. Might as well root on the team. UK played pretty strong against Texas and put the golden boy Archie on the ground a lot last Saturday. I guarantee Manning was rattled in that game by the UK defense. Loved it!!! They actually in many ways outplayed Texas. I thought Boley improved tremendously. The Texas defense was strong, especially inside the 10 yard line and in the red zone.Gotta give them boys credit.That unit saved Texas, and UK didn't slow Simmons down off the edge for Texas, as he put Boley on the ground more than he should have, He is a great player. UK had their chances, and when your offense can't score from inside the two yard line, you won't win many football games. I hate Tennessee with a passion. I am hoping/looking for UK to beat them into the ground, embarrass that haughty orange bunch. Nick Roush and Adam Luckett at KSR need to quit whining so much, they sound like little girls these days. Go Cats, this is a big one.
We are over 1/2 through the season. Here are the performance levels.
Tennessee: Adjusted Net offensive efficiency, 4.16 points per possession,
Adjusted defensive efficiency, 1.92 ppp
Kentucky:
Adjusted offensive efficiency, 2.78 ppp
Adjusted defenisve efficiency, 1.42 ppp
Yes, the Tennessee offense has been very potent, it is tied for 4th in the SEC with UGA and Ole Miss.
However, Tennessee's defense has been very weak, 15th out of 16 in the SEC, only better than Arkansas' defense.
Tennessee plays at the fastest pace in the SEC, averaging 12.3 possessions per game. UK on the other hand at 11.5 possessions per game, is the 5th fastest pace in the SEC.
Tennessee's average total points both teams score in a game is the highest, at just under 75 points per game and since Tennessee is averaging about 51 ppg, it is allowing about 24 ppg.
I believe UK's defense will slow Tennessee down some, and I believe UK's offense, as anemic as it has been, can score points on this Tennessee defense.
Thus, 28-33.
You're being very generous to the Cats at 28 points scored.
Great numbers Professor
3 picks & 2 fumble recoveries = a chance.
Why, Tenn gives up over 30 per game, and UK scores about 23 per game against defenses on average that have been much stronger than Tennessee's defense.
They play the game to determine the score. Guessing what it will be can be fun.
Also, I think the Prof is using AI – and that is a sincere compliment.
Also, Prof – show me your stuff by telling me us how many times Coach H has scored on us on their first possession – may even surprise you.
last 4 years have been td, td, td, and missed field goal.
Stoops' defenses seems plagued by slow starts.
Not the numbers we needed to see Professor … but thanks for the warning about what to expect
Numbers don’t lie… and are fully supported by the typical trance UK players are in after the pre-game hypnosis “pep talk” has been obvious a dozen years!
The comprehensive analysis The Professor does prior to UK games in BB & FB has an amazing track record of accuracy.
Boyer overcame the typical UK slow start when he completed 4 of 5 passes the opening drive to the 15 yard line vs TX. Then the play calling stalled UK with run up the middle over and over until it lost the ball on downs after a net loss of a yard.
Well done Prof.