Can John Calipari become an offensive minded coach

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Can Sahvir Wheeler be both a play starter and solid defender at 5-9? (Vicky Graff Photo)

It’s just about that time of year. Even though most Kentucky fans are still keeping their eyes focused on the football Cats, the basketball Cats are also cranking up. The first UK exhibition game is right around the corner — that corner being around the 29th of October against Kentucky Wesleyan.

One thing that is interesting about this year’s team is that the players seem to be more of an offensive finesse team than most of John Calipari’s previous teams.

Here’s what I mean. This team should be driven by guard play. Based on the limited offensive firepower of the players that will be filling the post — 6-9, 255-pound junior Oscar Tshiebwe and 6-9, 225-pound sophomore Lance Ware — it doesn’t seem possible that UK will play any kind of post-up offense. It seems much more likely that the Wildcats will be very perimeter-oriented with the six scholarship guards that are on the roster.

Those players can pretty much be broken up into Calipari’s suggested buckets of “play starters” and “play finishers.” It looks like UK will have two of each type with two other guards — true freshman TyTy Washington and super senior Kellan Grady — being combo players.

That would make junior Savhir Wheeler and super senior Davion Mintz, at 5-9 and 6-3respectively, mostly “play starters.” They are effective with the ball in their hands, can get past a defender to either finish inside or pass the ball off to a teammate to finish and they both are good floor generals. They can score if they have to but also make everyone else better with their experience and passing ability. They are “play starters.”

On the other hand, junior CJ Frederick and sophomore Dontaie Allen would appear to both be “play finishers.” At 6-6 with an incredibly long wingspan, Allen is an excellent spot-up shooter and could eventually have the ability to take the ball to the basket and use his body to score whereas Frederick has shown that he could be one of the best 3-point shooters in the SEC. Allen has already proven to also be a high percentage 3-point shooter and with some additional work and experience Allen’s size could allow him to be a “pick and pop” candidate with Wheeler or Mintz.

That leaves combo guards Grady and Washington. Both players can take the ball to the basket off the fast break and Washington appears to be an excellent three-point shooter as he won the Iverson Classic three-point shooting contest back in May. Grady was a career 37 percent 3-point shooter during his days at Davidson.

That means Calipari can mix and match his guards depending on which one has the hot hand on any particular night. Teams that can shoot a high percentage from the floor and also take the ball to the basket are usually tough outs at tournament time. If the Cats can get steady offensive production from the likes of Keion Brooks, Jacob Toppin, Bryce Hopkins, and Daimion Collins in the paint area, then the offense should be in good shape once all the kinks of integrating new players into the system have been worked out.

So my biggest concern this season won’t be offensive-related. My concern is can a defensive-minded coach like John Calipari — who only plays man-to-man defense — be able to get some of his guards who are either shorter in stature or not the quickest players on the floor to play credible enough defense to allow them to stay on the floor for their offensive skills?

Particularly Allen and Frederick for their lack of quickness and Wheeler for his shorter stature could really put a crimp in Kentucky’s ability to stop teams from taking the ball to the basket. Without a true rim protector on defense and two interior players that seem to be foul prone (Tshiebwe averaged 22 minutes per game and three fouls per game at West Virginia while Ware averaged 12 minutes per game and two fouls per game) Kentucky could find itself in a position where they have to outscore the other team on three-point shots in order to win the game.

Now there is nothing that says a player that doesn’t have great quickness or tall stature can’t be a good defensive player but it takes a lot more work and there is less margin for error on every play.

Overall it will be interesting to see if Calipari can coach against his nature and ride the coattails of what should be a pretty good offensive team instead of using long, lean athletic players to play lockdown defense and hope they can score enough points to win the game — something UK fans have seen a lot of in the past.

If this team can live up to the offensive hype and play average or better defense this season Calipari should be able to hang on to his swaggy attitude but if offensive players struggle to play defense and it affects their offensive game negatively fans may see the worst of both — offense and defense — at least in the early part of the season.

I, for one, am looking forward to seeing if Calipari can make the same transition in basketball that Nick Saban had to make with Alabama Football in changing from a defensive machine to an offensive one. It seemed to help rejuvenate the Crimson Tide, maybe it will do the same for Calipari’s Cats.

6 Responses

  1. Liggins well explain what "live/die" by the three is. UofK is going to face some very physical teams in the SEC and an Ohio State team with a beast forward. Should be an entertaining season. One would think coach would have already been there with Saban.
    Guy has how many national titles? Players that leave for the NBA really don’t care about a title b/c he forces them off. What a catch 22

  2. The issue with Alabama this year is a defense that has been less reliable than most Saban defenses, giving up over 20 ppg.

    Prior to 2018, Alabama averaged 36.4 ppg and allowed 12.9 ppg winning 5 championships in 9 seasons under Saban. Since 2018, Alabama averaged 46.8 ppg and allowed 19.2 ppg, winning 1 championship in 4 seasons.

    I am unconvinced the brilliance of Saban is demonstrated by the outcomes.

    Here is the data:
    YEAR OFF DEF MARGIN CHAMPIONSHIP
    2009 32.1 11.7 20.4 Champ
    2010 35.7 13.5 22.2
    2011 34.8 8.2 26.6 Champ
    2012 38.7 10.9 27.8 Champ
    2013 38.2 13.9 24.3
    2014 36.9 18.4 18.5
    2015 35.1 15.1 20.0 Champ
    2016 38.8 13.0 25.8
    2017 37.1 11.9 25.2 Champ
    2018 45.6 18.1 27.5
    2019 47.2 18.8 28.4
    2020 48.5 19.4 29.1 Champ
    2021 45.9 20.6 25.3

  3. Professor, I think what Alabama fans are finding out is that scoring that many points per game waters down the defense IMO. Fans of Lane Kiffin, Mike Leach and Josh Heupel already know this. There is a balance in there that teams gave to find and Alabama had it for a long time but now seems to have moved more towards the offensive side. In basketball Calipari has always been a defense first coach and the unbalance has hurt him against well-coached, high scoring teams that also play credible defense. He has hit too many offensive droughts during big games which has cost him titles IMO.

    1. Keith,

      What I have found is that champions in basketball have offensive and defensive efficiencies that are both in the top 20, and are ranked in the top 4 for Net efficiency. Calipari has had 3 teams that fit that description: 2015, 2012, and 2017.

      Other notable teams have had issues. For example, 2010 was #6 defensively, but #22 offensively, and in the Elite 8, it had one of those nights that the outside shot abandoned them, and they abandoned the inside game with Cousins that had been so good to that team all season long. The 2019 was reasonably strong at both ends of the court, but its net efficiency did not reach the elite level (#8). Ditto for 2011 (#7).

      The 2016 team had one of Calipari’s strongest offenses, but its defense never measured up (#39)

      The teams that really did not meet the criteria at all were 2014 (despite their end of year miracle run), 2018, 2020, and 2021. 2013 goes in this last group, but before Nerlens went down, that team was posting reasonably good efficiencies, but after Nerlens went down that team went into the tank.

      What will 2022 have in store? We will all have to wait and see. However, to content for a championship, a team needs a top 20 offense and top 20 defense, and an efficiency based ranking of #4 or higher. In terms of numbers, an adjusted offensive efficiency of 1.2 PPP or higher, an adjusted defensive efficiency of 0.9 PPP or lower, and an adjusted net efficiency of 0.3 PPP or higher.

      Pomeroy’s preseason forecast for UK in 2022 are 1.12 PPP on offense, 0.91 PPP on defense, and 0.21 PPP NET. That will not get it done.

      1. Professor sometimes your numbers scare me, especially since I know how often they are right

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