Every team has flaws. As UK fans, we see and recognize UK’s flaws because of our interest in what UK does as well as our having watched all their games. It is more difficult to recognize the flaws that Auburn, Tennessee, and Arkansas have, but make no mistake each of them has flaws too. So does Gonzaga, Purdue, Duke, Baylor, Kansas, ….
A few days ago, a TV advertisement about a true crime program made the often forgotten point, “People lie, facts don’t lie.”
Here are some facts.
UK is #2 in Pomeroy, behind Gonzaga. If my team is not #1, then I want it to be #2. If my team is not #1 or #2, I want it to be #3.
The #1, #2, and #3 teams have won substantially all the NCAA championships since 2002, and that is not by accident. They win because they play better basketball than the rest of the field. These teams cannot achieve those #1, #2 or #3 efficiency rankings any other way.
Yes, it is true that the #1, #2 or #3 team does not win every year, but unless another team is named UConn, who else has done it? Maybe this is a year for a UConn type of team to emerge from the shadows and pull off a miracle run. There is no way to know, but I am convinced that UK is one of this year’s elite teams. UK has been in this elite group many times and has won the championship 8 times. They may not win it this year, but they have a legitimate chance to do it.
At the beginning of every season, my primary hope is that UK will have a team that is in this elite group at the end of the year. Most years, when UK ends a season in this elite group, they started the season like gangbusters and immediately identified themselves as a true contender. This team did not do that, and it did not emerge from the shadows to lay claim to this position until December.
Here is something to think about. In the first 9 games, UK was mediocre at best and was in decline after the Notre Dame loss. Since then, this team has been radically different as the numbers below demonstrate.
Games 1-9:
Offensive Efficiency: 1.133 points per possession (ppp)
Defensive Efficiency: 0.917 ppp
Net Efficiency: 0.215 ppp
Games 10-29:
Offensive Efficiency: 1.219 (ppp)
Defensive Efficiency: 0.894 ppp
Net Efficiency: 0.324 ppp
On offense, the 1.13 ppp offensive efficiency is only good enough to rank about 22nd in the nation and is about the same offensive efficiency this season as Connecticut, Colorado State, and Miami of Florida, names not exactly on the tip of the tongue when discussing postseason contenders. However, its 1.22 ppp offense since then is 2nd best in the country behind Purdue (1.245 ppp), and just ahead of the offense that the entire basketball world is going gaga over, Gonzaga (1.20 ppp).
On defense, the 0.92 ppp defensive efficiency posted during the first 9 games is only good enough to rank about 24th in the nation, and is about the same offensive efficiency as San Francisco, Seton Hall, and ironically Kansas. However, its 0.89 ppp defense since then is 14th best in the country. Certainly, UK’s defense is not in the same category as LSU (#1, 0.83 ppp), Tennessee (#3 0.84 ppp), or Auburn (#10 0.88 ppp), but those teams do not have the offensive credentials that UK has achieved.
The net efficiency for the first 9 games was 0.215 ppp, which is only pedestrian and enough to rank about #21 which is about the same as Alabama, Ohio State, UConn, and St. Mary’s. That is not good enough to have a legitimate sweet 16 claim, much less Elite 8. However, since game 9, the ANE has been 0.324 ppp, which is the second-highest in the nation behind those glorious Zags. Baylor is 0.30 ppp, and no other team is over 0.3 ppp.
So, warts and all, this is a strong team despite Calipari. I hope that the reader agrees that I call them as I see them. Most of the time, when I share what I see, the blue-shaded lens folks get angry and upset because they don’t like the message. This time, what I see is what I see, and it is good.
Thanks for giving me a platform to express what I see, whether it is popular or unpopular.
— Richard Cheeks, Contributing Writer
3 Responses
Thanks Richard! I have been waiting for this post from you. Actually I have been expecting it based of what I am seeing. The polls can put UK anywhere they want but I will take the statistical data. I agree with you 100%. Looking forward to the next 5 weeks!
If Sahvir Wheeler plays as an offensive facilitator and a defensive stopper to the point of fouling out, this could be a Final 4 team. If Sahvir looks for his shot first and slacks off the defense to avoid fouls, this team won’t make it to the second weekend of the Big Dance. Everyone feeds off of Sahvir for better or for worse. What will it be Sahvir?
I like stats, but they can and are many times misleading when it comes to sports. Unless every team played the same schedule and every player is healthy, their is a lot of things that can skew the final results.
My main point, of the top 10 teams, I believe Gonzaga has the greatest chance of their stats being skewed to the point of being ranked higher than they actually are. Their conference is worse than weak and they have probably not played too many really tough games back-to-back. Also, of those top 10 teams, UK may have the greatest argument that their numbers are skewed to the point of being ranked lower than they really are.
UK has not had a boat load of games where everyone is healthy. This could end up being a good thing for UK if everyone can remain healthy the rest of the year. We have several players on the bench that have played meaningful minutes, and made meaningful contributions.