Analytics indicate CJ Frederick is one of Kentucky's better players. (Vicky Graff Photo)
Analytics are way over my head but if you want to take emotion out of evaluations, analytics are the way to go.
Evan Miyakawa has had his college basketball analytics used on ESPN, CBS and other outlets and offers intriguing team and individual statistical analysts on his website (EvanMiya.com).
He offered some intriguing insights into this Kentucky basketball season after Kentucky’s 71-68 loss to South Carolina Tuesday night in Rupp Arena in a game Kentucky was favored to win by 20 or more points. That came three days after UK lost by 26 points at Alabama.
What jumped out at me immediately was something a lot of Kentucky fans have been speculating about. What if coach John Calipari used a lineup with CJ Fredrick and Antonio Reeves, the team’s two best outside shooters, along with freshman Cason Wallace at point guard, Jacob Toppin at forward and Oscar Tshiebwe at center.
Here is what Miyakawa noted for a “wild card” idea on Twitter: “Employ the lineup of Wallace, Reeves, Fredrick, Toppin, and Tshiebwe, which has only played 20 possessions together but has put up absurd numbers. Keep in mind that 5-man lineup data can be pretty unreliable in small doses. Still, very intriguing.”
Yes it is very intriguing because for a team that is struggling to score way too often, it seems like that would be an easy fix to try.
Want more?
Here are some of his other “observations” about Kentucky you might like:
— “First, Big Oscar is by far Kentucky’s most effective player. He ranks 6th in the country in Bayesian Performance Rating, which uses box score stats, on-court impact on team performance, and historical info to evaluate each player’s value on the offensive and defensive end.”
Okay, no surprise there. Tshiebwe might not be performing at national player of the year standards again but he is UK’s best offensive threat.
— “CJ Fredrick is known as a shooter, but the team is also playing well defensively when he’s on the floor. His On-Off splits show that the team is playing 8.6 points per 100 possessions better when he’s playing vs on the bench. By contrast, Daimion Collins’ On-Off Margin is -12.0.
“CJ Fredrick is featured in all of Kentucky’s top 5 most effective teammate pairs, ranked by Adjusted Team Efficiency Margin. This measures how many points per 100 possessions UK is outscoring opponents while he is on the floor, adjusted for the strength of opponent players faced.”
Again, just more reasons to be playing Fredrick if his defense is solid because defense — or lack of defense — has been another huge issue for Cats.
— “As a team, Kentucky needs to prioritize getting to the free throw line. This season, when UK attempts at least as many free throws as their opponent, they are 9-1 and win by an average of 19 points. However, when they have less FTAs, they are only 1-5 and are losing by 12 on average.”
Calipari’s teams normally get to the foul line a lot but that is probably the best indicator of this team’s lack of physical toughness.
Again, no emotion here, just the numbers by Evan Miyakawa. Follow him on Twitter at @evanmiya.
8 Responses
Everyone but Cal has been saying this most of the year. I guess the 9 million a year salary has blinded him from seeing the obvious!
no way it could hurt
GOOD IDEA!
IT WOULD NOT HURT TO TRY
WE AS SUPPORTERS ARE SPOILED WHEN IT COMES TO KY. BASKETBALL, EXPECTED TO WIN ALL THE TIME.
WE MUST REALIZE THAT THESE YOUNG MEN ARE JUST 18-20 YEARS OLD, PERFORMING ON NATIONAL TV, TALK ABOUT PRESSURE.
IT IS DISAPPOINTING AT TIMES TO WATCH A GAME, BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY THESE YOUNG MEN ARE HUMAN AND WILLL MAKE MISTAKES.
You are right Dennis. I think the perceived lack of fight is a bigger issue with many fans
Well then you cannot blame Cal too much because the kid cannot stay healthy enough to Keep on the floor! Hope he is fully recovered!
Larry, Just wondering if Cal has pushed too hard making this an Oscar first team at the expense others. If so, it’s not working and very well may be causing team resentment rather than unity.
I think that is a great point Don White and that could be the cause for some locker room unrest
Here is the problem with what is an obvious fix to the team’s struggles. It puts Wheeler on the bench and he is Calipari’s pet. Calipari has gone overboard in featuring Wheeler instead of Oscar. If this move was made, the downfall would come when Wheeler did get PT. He is bound and determined to prove he can play in the NBA and in this scenario, he would be forcing a shot every time he touched the ball. Wheeler is the square gear that keeps our team’s engine from running smoothly.