Kentucky's defense held Tennessee to only 19 points in the first half Saturday. (Vicky Graff Photo)
After beating Tennessee Saturday for its second Quad 1 win in four days, Kentucky has two more chances coming up this week for two more Quad 1 wins in games with Florida on the road and Auburn in Rupp Arena that not only would solidify UK’s spot in the NCAA Tournament but upgrade its potential seeding.
“Still believe if this team gets in, they can do damage. This week will go a long way in determining if they do in fact get in,” Fox Sports Radio host Aaron Torres tweeted after UK’s win over Tennessee Saturday.
Matt Norlander of CBS Sports has the same mindset about the Cats, who could also get another Quad 1 win if Texas A&M, which won at Missouri Saturday, keeps winning and slightly improves its national standing.
“Despite erratic performances, I’ve maintained the whole way that Kentucky would get itself into the NCAA Tournament. A season sweep of Tennessee has the Wildcats in the field for now with some elbow room,” Norlander said.
Kentucky coach John Calipari’s team is now 8-3 in its last 11 games with two of the losses coming to Kansas and Arkansas. The team’s improved play has not surprised him.
“I’ve said all along we were going to break through. We’ve had two losses (South Carolina and Georgia) that you would like to have back. We’ve had other games, really the first game, but, you know what, none of that matters now,” Calipari said after the win over Tennessee Saturday.
“Everything is us going forward. So we have a tough game. We got road games (Florida and Arkansas), two tough road games. We got two tough home games (Auburn and Vanderbilt).
“Play the games. Let’s see how we are. Let’s see if we get healthy. Let’s see if we get better.”
Alabama leads the SEC with a 13-1 mark while Texas A&M is 12-2. Next comes Kentucky and Tennessee both at 9-5. The Vols still have to play at Texas A&M and Auburn and will host South Carolina and Auburn. If UK and Tennessee tie in the SEC standings, Kentucky owns the tiebreaker with the season sweep.
After starting SEC play 1-3, Kentucky is now in great position to earn a double bye in the SEC Tournament, especially if the Vols lose at Texas A&M Tuesday.
“I can’t tell you what is going to happen with this team but I can tell you we are a lot better,” Calipari said Saturday.
Count me as one who believes him.
8 Responses
Am I on drugs, or has Calipari changed? Calipari started the year like a pompus peacock, but I believe he has changed since Wheeler went down. I am seeing more of the coach he was at UMass and Memphis now. He is playing guys who want to win games and aren’t worried about the NBA. I wish Onyenso had seen some PT. I think his rim protection and rebounding would have helped us avoid a couple of losses and would be a plus for tourney time. He may get thrown into the fire yet; I just wish he could have seen more action to be more ready for it. This team is hard to figure out. Missouri and Bama showed we were not ready for SEC play. Then we beat UT twice and lose to South Carolina, Georgia, and Arkansas. Teams have figured out how to take Oscar out of the game, but he is still doing what he can. Toppin showed that he is not going to be a 20/10 guy every night, even when his man guards Oscar more than him. Livingston is picking up the slack and Thiero is coming around too. I am not sure about the status of Frederick and Wheeler. They need to accept different roles now. I hope they see that the best way they can help this team is to defend, rebound, take care of the ball, and help other guys get shots. We aren’t out of the woods yet. Florida could be a trap game if we look ahead to the Auburn game. They are all going to be tough, but the Vandy game in Rupp and the Arkansas game will be the toughest. We could win all 4 and could lose all 4. Nobody is going to catch Bama and A&M is playing well too. Win all 4 and we are a No. 3 seed in the SEC tourney which means we wouldn’t face Bama unless it is in the championship game. That’s about as good a draw as we could hope for. It’s too early to say if this team can make a run like the Julius Randle team did…Tennessee did out score us by 8 in the second half, but they hung on. That 7 – 0 start the Vols had to start the second half shows that this team still has focus issues, but if the coach I saw in the post game interview session doesn’t go awol, this team could have that type of run.
Onyseno time will be next year that’s was the whole plan begin with. As far Wheeler and CJ we need them back in order to give Wallace breather he was tired during end of the game.. You got to give Tenn more credit start of second half they were more focus on the defense of side that’s why there one of top teams in term of defense. We just to keep our focus intact and take care of business these last 4 games. Go cats!!
On another note anybody in given night can be beaten it has shown the last couple weeks especially in the sec conference it has been wild.
Which breakthrough that Calipari expected? The one after game 10, the one after game 16, the one after game 25?
This team continues to play within the same range that it started the season and established for itself after the first 8 games. There have been ups and there have been downs. Such is the nature of a long season.
Anytime any UK team beats any UT team, the win is a great one to get. When UT is one of the top tier teams, the win is even sweeter. When UK can get two of those kind of wins over UT in a single season, it is indeed special.
That does not define the team.
What defines this team is its #35 ranking, its 0.18 ppp ANE, and its 18-9 record.
I suppose if the frame of reference for improvement is defined by games 10, 16, and 25, then this team has broken through from those floors. If the frame of reference for breaking through is competitiveness for a championship, this team is not even close.
For me, the standard for UK basketball is competing for championships, not merely making the NCAA field.
Amen Professor.
For years, I allowed my emotions to rise and fall with the game to game fortunes or misfortunes of UK basketball and football teams.
During those years, I was dogmatic that UK defined itself by those great wins and somehow those disappointing games along the path were somehow anomolies. In fact, any game that did not meet or exceed those great ones were disappointing.
I grew weary of that roller coaster ride of emotions, and began to examine how teams, not just UK, perform over the course of many games. As my understanding of the nature of human competition expanded, I realized that those wide emotional swings were a complete waste of emotional energy.
I refuse to let games like South Carolina or Georgia alter my view of my team, and I must resist the strong urge to allow games like the two UT games this season to do the same. All teams are defined by their average level of performance over the course of time. Teams with higher average performances win 3 out of every 4 games, and the upset rate is statistically predictable based upon the magnitude of the spread between two competitor’s average performance levels. The closer they are, the upset rate approaches 50% and as that gap widens, the upset rate approaches 0% at the extremes.
I have tracked the upset rates as a function of the pre-game margin for years, and these relationships are reliable, and upsets are part of every sport.
The SEC Network just released the Top 5 Power Rankings in the SEC. Kentucky was not on that list. Which Kentucky is going to show up? The one that lost to Georgia and Arkansas or the one that beat Tennessee twice? I have no idea. We could win the last 4 games and could also lose the last 4 games, which would include two more losses in Rupp. With Frederick and Wheeler still game to game and Onyenso practically being injured as well, it will be an interesting 2 weeks. If Casleton is still out, we should get a W in Gainesville. Auburn is playing for its playoff life. Bruce Pearl has owned Calipari in recent high stakes games; playing at Rupp does not guarantee us a W. The Robbins kid is back and playing lights out for Vandy; again, playing at Rupp is an advantage but not a guaranteed win. The Razorbacks are primed to give us a real asswhooping, but the way this season has gone…anything could happen. Me thinks the outcome of this season will hinge not only on who gameplans the best, but also makes adjustments on the fly. Then you have the injury wildcard. It looks like sales of Maalox and Tums will go through the roof in the coming days. Invest accordingly.
Here are the power rankings that I pay any attention to, my own ANE and Ken Pomeroy.
TEAM RANK RANK
ANE POMEROY
Alabama 2 2
Tennessee 3 4
Arkansas 21 17
Auburn 26 21
Texas A&M 32 30
Kentucky 33 35
Mississi St. 38 42
Florida 48 54
Missouri 62 62
Vanderbilt 94 87
Mississippi 119 119
Georgia 135 126
LSU 138 145
S Carolina 241 224
The SEC this season is top heavy with Alabama and Tennessee, and then the quality falls greatly to a cluster of 7 teams, Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M, UK, Miss. St., Florida, and Missouri.
Vanderbilt then pops in, but frankly, if there is a team on the rise, it may be Vandy right now.
The bottom 4 have been defined for a long time. Yes, UK has beaten Tennessee twice, but UK has also lost to Georgia and S. Carolina
You cannot overvalue the huge wins and ignore the embarrassing losses. It just doesn’t work that way.
UK is 6th in the SEC, nipping at Texas A&M’s heels, and being chased by Mississippi State.
In my opinion, the SEC has 7 teams worthy of the NCAA field, but may not get 7 in. If only 6 get in, then UK will be the last SEC team into the field.