Deone Walker put the hurt on Louisville last season. (Vicky Graff Photo)
Former Kentucky all-Southeastern Conference players Anthony White and Van Hiles were both adamant on WLAP Sunday Morning Sports Talk recently that Kentucky should be expected to win eight games this season — and they both think UK will win more than eight.
However, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is not nearly as optimistic about this season. Instead, FPI projects a 6-6 mark for the Cats and that will be a huge, huge disappointment to UK coaches, players and fans.
The ratings have UK projected as a big favorite over Southern Mississippi Saturday along with projected to win over non-conference foes Ohio and Murray. The Wildcats were also given a 77.6 percent chance of beating Vandy.
That’s four wins but in the other eight games, ESPN’s FPI projects only two wins even though it projects UK as the 34th-best team in college football — but that is only 13th in the SEC. The FPI gives UK a 61.1 percent chance of reaching six wins which likely would extend head coach Mark Stoops’ school record to nine consecutive bowl appearances.
Kentucky is given only a 55.9 percent chance of beating South Carolina in week two. The Cats went 7-1 against South Carolina before the Gamecocks won the last two. However, I just don’t see South Carolina coming to Kroger Field next week and winning with its own new starting quarterback and a defense not nearly as good as UK’s.
I can get UK only given a 12.2 percent chance of beating Georgia, which won 51-13 over UK last year and has 14 straight wins over Kentucky.
Preseason No. 6 Ole Miss owns wins of 22-19 (2022), 42-41 overtime (2020) and 37-34 (2017). ESPN projects only a 29.5 percent chance of UK winning.
Here is one that might really surprise you. ESPN’s FPI gives the Cats only a 34.1 percent chance of winning at Florida. The Cats are 3-1 in the last four games against Florida and 4-2 in the last six with two road wins.
Auburn is a home game but again, FPI makes Auburn the favorite with UK given only a 46.1 percent chance of winning. Auburn has not played in Lexington since 2015. Again, for UK to win eight or more games, this is a MUST WIN.
At Texas on Nov. 23, UK is only given a 10.7 percent chance of winning and going into the season I will not argue with his projection. Remember Texas won 12 games last year and made the college football four-team playoff.
The last two projections will irk UK fans. Kentucky lost 26 games to Tennessee before winning in 2011 but since then just has two more wins — 2017 and 2020. This game is at Tennessee and the Cats are given only a 20 percent chance of winning and this is in the you have to see it to believe it before counting this as a Kentucky win.
But the ESPN prediction machine lost me when it gave UK only a 44.3 percent chance to beat Louisville at Kroger Field. Kentucky has won five straight over Louisville, including 38-31 last year in Louisville when the Cards were ranked 10th nationally.
Combine all that and ESPN’s projections have UK finishing 5-7 — and I just don’t see that being accurate.
6 Responses
A 5-7 season is very likely if Stoops continues to play not to lose. If he coaches this team to play to win, I can see 8-4. This team has the physical talent to go toe to toe with the SEC’s best, but do they have the mental toughness to do so? Lastly, you have to believe you can win before you can win consistently. This is the biggest edge that Georgia and Tennessee have over us…they believe they are going to win when they play us. It starts with Stoops…he has to believe his team and his game plan are good enough to win versus trying to find a way to steal a win.
I have to agree with you. Your 4-8 to 8-4 range mentioned over a month ago reflects your comments in this thread. The team mentality has been more of a trance than focused at kickoff for many, many UK FB games. I don’t know what takes place in the locker room before kickoff, but it is putting the players into a lull with zero focus on football at kickoff. It has been a negative trademark since WKU beat UK in the very first Stoops era game.
I have believed that every OC who left was fed up with a defensive expert trying to control the offense. That is all part of the playing not to lose scenario.
Has UK done a better job the past 8 years than any 8 year run we can recall? Yes & thanks to Stoops, Marrow AND the UKAA finally pumping money AND support into FB whcih has made it happen.
Did UK peak at 10 wins twice in those 4 seasons? Is 7 wins the average norm for the future?
The entire team needs to follow Walker with his work ethic and mindset planning to WIN if UK can get 8 or more wins.
I may be dreaming, but do believe if the OC is not handcuffed, and the locker room lull can be corrected, then UK will make a run at 10 wins. It could just as easily be those 5 wins projected by ESPN, but they aren’t as sharp as they think they are.
Very true with respect to mental and confidence convictions against UT and UGA. UGA has always had superior talent and coaching. UT has not over last 5 years or so but their recruiting and coaching would give them a edge at this time. Wins and losses are a measuring stick but my personal measuring stick is Stoo.ps’s ability to beat UT
5 wins won’t even get us into The Little Debbie Bowl.
FORGET THIS PLAY NOT TO LOSE! LET IT RIP.
OPEN IT UP! TAKE CHANCES!
FEED THE HORSE , WHO EVER IT MIGHT BE .JUST HAVE FUN!
They are smoking something at ESPN they are also very high on Louisville and I don’t get that. We have 9 starters back on defense and the 2 that ain’t back got replaced by probably better players with Pop and Waller or Dunn. We also have a experienced offensive line wide receivers and tight ends. So what are they low on are 5* quarterback? Or are 4* running back? Maybe because we play in a ridiculously hard conference so we won’t win as many games but come on now 5-7??!! 7-5 and I would be disappointed with this team. ESPN has some explaining to do at the end of the year.